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Manchester City v Real Madrid tips: Champions League semi-final best bets and preview
Tom Carnduff has three big-priced bets for Manchester City v Real Madrid, with cards in focus for a potentially thrilling second leg.
Football betting tips: Champions League
1pt Rodri & Antonio Rudiger both to be carded at 12/1 (bet365)
1pt Dani Carvajal & Jack Grealish both to be carded at 14/1 (bet365)
1pt Eder Militao & Federico Valverde both to be carded at 25/1 (bet365)
- Aggregate score: Manchester City 1-1 Real Madrid
A tie left perfectly in the balance following the 1-1 draw in the first leg. That's what it appears to be on paper anyway, but the truth is that Manchester City are heavily fancied for progression to the final.
The Asian Handicap currently stands at -1 in City's favour, with a best price of 8/13 available with bookmakers on a home win in 90 minutes.
Pep Guardiola's men have one-and-a-half hands on the Premier League title with an historic treble in their sights. Real Madrid pose another tough test, particularly in a contest where tempers could flare at various stages.
Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Wednesday
TV channel: BT Sport 1
Manchester City 4/7 | Draw 10/3 | Real Madrid 17/4
There were four cards shown to players on the pitch in the first leg - with another to Carlo Ancelotti - but even then it felt as if referee Artur Soares Dias had a lenient game.
A number of players could consider themselves lucky that they didn't go into the book. Given the amount riding on this second leg, it would be fair to assume we are going to see a high number dished out.
Szymon Marciniak is the man in the middle here and his record this season is eye-catching. He's averaged 4.64 cards per game - a figure that moves up to 4.71 across seven Champions League outings.
Going for a few card double combinations delivers some interesting prices, the first is backing RODRI & ANTONIO RUDIGER TO BOTH BE CARDED at 12/1.
Rudiger took a physical approach with Erling Haaland in that first leg, with a total of two fouls across the 90 minutes. That was the second-highest of any Real player.
Rodri was another who racked up the foul count but avoided a booking - committing a total of three - and he will be drawn into bringing players down if they are holding a lead.
These two feel key when it comes to the battles in the central areas of the pitch. Rudiger will likely be looking to deal with Haaland again while Rodri will be working against the Real trio.
Moving across to City's left, and it was surprising that DANI CARVAJAL & JACK GREALISH avoided CARDS in Madrid last week.
It was particularly the case for the Real full-back, with his total of four first-half fouls not enough to draw the referee into giving him a card.
This is a battle that the officials may discuss before kick-off. The best way to approach it could be handing out yellows to both at the first sign of confrontation.
Grealish has also played his part when it comes to committing fouls this season with four cards on his tally. We've also seen in more recent weeks his defensive work rate and tracking back in order to try and win possession.
The final of the card trebles is the biggest price, with 25s available on EDER MILITAO & FEDERICO VALVERDE TO BOTH BE CARDED.
Militao missed the first leg of this through suspension, but he should return to the defence to partner Rudiger, with David Alaba moving to left-back.
Valverde was an unsuccessful card selection in the last leg but I'm happy enough to back him again here. He's seen 0.7 fouls per Champions League game and could be drawn into one in an attempt to stop a City attack.
He's been booked six times across all competitions this season, and the fact he regularly plays the full 90 minutes gives the bet an improved chance of landing.
This looks to finally be MANCHESTER CITY's year in this competition, even if we find ourselves saying that at the start of every edition.
With the hosts a short price for success though, taking CARVAJAL, GREALISH, MILITAO, RODRI, RUDIGER and VALVERDE in card combinations across three bets looks the best approach.
Manchester City v Real Madrid best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Rodri & Antonio Rudiger both to be carded at 12/1 (bet365)
- 1pt Dani Carvajal & Jack Grealish both to be carded at 14/1 (bet365)
- 1pt Eder Militao & Federico Valverde both to be carded at 25/1 (bet365)
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-1 Real Madrid (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1655 BST (15/05/23)
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