Manchester City host Paris St Germain in the Champions League, with the winner in line to take pole position in the group. Jake Pearson has previewed the match and picked out a best bet.
Football betting tips: Champions League
2pts Manchester City -3 on the corner handicap at Evens (Sky Bet)
Manchester City come into this match in fine form, winning their last three successive matches by an aggregate scoreline of 9-1, including an incredibly professional 3-0 victory over Everton on Saturday.
Meanwhile, despite the rumours surrounding manager Mauricio Pochettino and his potential move to Manchester United, all else looks relatively hunky-dory in the city of Paris, PSG currently 11 points clear at the top of Ligue 1 and on track to earn the Argentine manager his first league title - unless of course he leaves first.
The Champions League is a different story of the Parisians though, as despite their 2-0 loss in Paris in the reverse fixture, Manchester City still sit in pole position in Group A.
A shock 1-1 draw away in Brugge on the opening matchday, followed by a 2-2 draw away to RB Leipzig last time out in this competition, has left PSG a point adrift of City, with Pep Guardiola’s men winning their three other matches.
It puts plenty of emphasis on this match, with a victory for City more or less guaranteeing them top spot, but PSG certainly have the players to cause Guardiola’s side problems, as they demonstrated back in September.
PSG created few chances at the Parc des Princes, generating just 0.57 Expected Goals For (xGF), while City carved out chances equating to 1.71 xGF, but an early goal from Idrissa Gueye, topped off by a sumptuous strike from Lionel Messi – incidentally his first goal for the side from the French capital - showed just why it is so dangerous to underestimate them.
A price of 4/1 for PSG to win the match may well have done that – consider a team with Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Neymar given just a 20% chance of winning a football match – but there is more value to be found looking away from the 1X2 market in this fixture.
The most proficient corner takers in the Premier League are Manchester City, racking up a whopping 99 corners already this season. That is an average of 8.25 per game, while no team has conceded fewer than their 33 corners – 2.75 per match.
At the Etihad they have conceded just 10 corners in the Premier League this term, and have only conceded more than two on one occasion. A quite frankly astonishing return.
Of course, they do not face the likes of PSG every week in the Premier League, but amassing corner after corner is not exactly an area in which the Parisians excel.
Seven teams in Ligue 1 this season have been awarded more corners than PSG, Pochettino’s men averaging just five corners per match, while also sitting outside the top six in terms of least corners conceded. Away from the Parc des Princes they have won the corner battle on just two occasions this term.
Plenty of this can be attributed to the style of play both teams employ, with City more patient before pulling the trigger.
37% of PSG’s shots have come from outside the box this season, compared to City’s league-low of 29%. This improves the likelihood of the shots being on target, and therefore resulting in a corner.
Guardiola’s side are expected to win more corners than PSG, and quite comfortably, which makes backing MANCHESTER CITY -3 ON THE CORNER HANDICAP at a price of even money a very appealing bet.
Consider also that when these two met in Paris, Manchester City won the corner battle 10-2, as well as the fact that this selection would have landed in nine of City’s Premier League matches this season.
Man City v PSG best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Manchester City -3 on the corner handicap at Evens (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Manchester City 1-1 PSG (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1710 GMT (22/11/21)
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