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Manchester City v Chelsea tips: Super Sunday best bets and preview
After landing a 14/1 winner in City's triumph over Real, Tom Carnduff has a best bet for the Super Sunday clash against Chelsea.
- Published prior to confirmation of City's title win
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Manchester City (-2 handicap) to win at 15/8 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
If you had told Pep Guardiola back in August that his Manchester City side would still have five games remaining heading into the penultimate weekend of May, he'd have more than taken it.
A clear sign of how well their season has gone, the treble looks a likely outcome now rather than a mere dream at the beginning of the campaign. They could well be Premier League champions by the time this game kicks-off.
It will happen, in the eyes of the bookmakers anyway, with Sky Bet now offering 4/7 on the treble, never mind just England's top-flight. Regardless of what Arsenal do on Saturday, City should have little issues in brushing aside this woeful Chelsea team.
Kick-off time: 16:00 BST, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Manchester City 2/9 | Draw 21/4 | Chelsea 11/1
"This is Chelsea Football Club we know we don't want to be in 11th position," claimed Frank Lampard following his heroic homecoming to save Chelsea from their perilous position in the table.
To his credit, he's done his best to move them out of that place. They're now level on points with Palace in 12th, although the goal difference could take a hammering at the Etihad.
Ending their season with three defeats - a real possibility given the fixture list - would make this Lampard spell the worst in Chelsea's history for a manager to oversee ten games or more. This really shouldn't be a game that City fear.
With this all in mind, MANCHESTER CITY (-2 HANDICAP) TO WIN provides appeal with best odds of 15/8 available.
This will come as no surprise, but City have hammered the majority of bottom-half opponents when facing them at home this season.
They've scored at least three in seven of their nine contests against those currently 11th or lower, winning by three or more in five of those.
In fact, City have won by three or more against three of the current top-five too, so it's not something exclusively to those sitting further down the table.
In Chelsea, they play a team struggling for results and goals. They may have scored five in their last two, but that came against Bournemouth and Nottingham Forest.
Across Lampard's eight games at the helm, they've scored seven from 9.6 xG. If we count just the five games against top-half sides plus Champions League, it's two from 5.8 xG.
Game state was a factor against Real Madrid though as they had to go for it in the second leg. They would post just 0.87 xG at Arsenal and 0.51 xG at Brighton.
Hardly a good sign against this City defence, one allowing a league-best average of 0.82 xGA per home game this season. At the other end, they're creating chances equalling an average of 2.45 xG.
It's a clear mismatch, and City could even afford to rotate a couple of players and still get the job done, such is the quality in depth they have across this entire squad.
Chelsea just want this season to end. Little incentive to play for and eagerly awaiting the Mauricio Pochettino era to begin.
It all plays into the hands of MANCHESTER CITY, who not only want the title but to also build momentum ahead of two major finals in June.
Manchester City v Chelsea best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Manchester City (-2 handicap) to win at 15/8 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Score prediction: Manchester City 4-0 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1135 BST (18/05/23)
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