Manchester City will be looking to continue their fine form as they face Aston Villa and Tom Carnduff has two best bets to back.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Aston Villa to have 4+ corners at 11/8
1pt Aston Villa to have the most corners at 15/2
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Manchester City v Aston Villa
- 18:00 GMT on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 1/4 | Draw 5/1 | Away 10/1
Manchester City have the opportunity to return to the top of the Premier League, for a couple of hours at least, if they can secure victory over Aston Villa on Wednesday night. Pep Guardiola's men struggled at the start of the season but, rather worryingly for the other 19 teams, they look back to their best with new-found defensive security.
It may be new but an old face is hitting the headlines for his performances since a return to the team. John Stones netted twice in the win over Crystal Palace and is now a heavy odds-on to make the England squad for the Euros. He has formed a fine partnership with Ruben Dias at the back and this now holds equal importance to City as their star-studded attack.
Gone are the days it seems where City would score eight past an opponent in a league game. They are still winning games comfortably and with confidence, but the focus is now seemingly on ensuring the number on one side of the scoreboard is as low as it can possibly be.
They've kept five clean sheets in their last six outings in all competitions. That is why they are now in this position to move back to the top of the division. Against an Aston Villa side who haven't had their first team play a competitive fixture since New Year's Day, City will be hopeful of extending that run.
Covid shutdowns are becoming more common in football and Villa were the latest club to suffer as a result. Player safety is always the priority and, while a fixture backlog won't be ideal in the long run, it will be a minor point in the grand scheme of things. A 6-0 City win here does not mean Villa are collapsing, it will take teams time to adjust in their return to the pitch.
The hosts are a very short 1/4 for victory, although there is more of a temptation to take the 11/10 on a City win to nil if we are looking at the outright market. There is better value elsewhere though, and like the successful approach to the City-Brighton game, it's worth siding with the away team in the corners betting.
It's an approach worth remembering when City are at home because the odds are always so heavily priced in their favour. However, the right team can still force them into conceding corners and Villa, on paper at least, look more than capable of doing just that.
Since the 7-2 win over Liverpool, Villa have taken at least four corners in every game apart from the cup game last time out. They sit fourth in the Premier League for total corners, averaging 7.2 per game. The position in this table is impressive given the fact they have played at three games fewer than most teams.
Sky Bet make it 11/8 that Villa take four or more here, which looks generous given their track record. The only time they have fallen short of that was when their youngsters stepped in against a very strong Liverpool side - a return for first teamers should see the count rise again.
What is also interesting is how Villa are regularly on the right side of the corner count. In the period mentioned above, they have taken more corners in games against Arsenal, Brighton, Burnley, Leeds, Leicester, Manchester United, Southampton, West Brom, West Ham and Wolves.
The only game where they've seen less is their trip to Chelsea. They're usually a good bet in this market, and even with City's strong performances at home, the 15/2 on offer with Betfair and Paddy Power is worth going for because of the huge value on offer. City don't often lose the corner count, but Liverpool saw more and Arsenal drew level. There have been numerous games where they have just about edged it.
The required Villa total of four would have also denied City the 'win' on the corner count on three separate occasions, so while we can expect the home side to be on the front foot, they have seen a low corner tally in the past. It is worth siding with Guardiola's men in the result market, but the best value can be found in the away side getting their fair share of set-piece opportunities.
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-0 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Manchester City v Aston Villa best bets
Odds correct at 1045 GMT (19/01/21)
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