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Manchester City & Liverpool Premier League rivalry might be decided by a single moment
The rivalry between Liverpool and Manchester City is like nothing English football has seen before.
Jurgen Klopp and Pep Guardiola have arguably built the two greatest club teams the game has ever seen.
Both are desperately unlucky the other exists in the same era, and it should come as no surprise that four potential meetings between the sides over the next six weeks will probably define the Premier League, Champions League, and FA Cup.
We have not seen anything like this before, a level of technical and tactical brilliance that makes the two teams almost perfect, piling extra importance onto their 'six-pointers'.
In 2019 a John Stones clearance off the line, with the scores at 0-0, was the defining moment of a 2-1 win for Man City that ultimately denied Liverpool the league title and an invincible season.
The gap was 1.12cm, and it was a similar margin that denied Fabinho scoring what appeared to be an open goal in the 2-2 draw at Anfield back in October.
However we preview the tactical battle at the Etihad on Sunday, in the end it will come down to a moment like that; to a trajectory on a single ball that, one centimetre in either direction, would put us on a completely different timeline.
At this level of intensity and closeness, it becomes a game of luck as much as skill.
In the reverse fixture, Man City were completely on top for the first hour until Liverpool’s opener against the run of play changed the dynamic to create a chaotic end-to-end game (xG: LIV 1.22 - 1.06 MCI), and considering Klopp and Guardiola are constantly tweaking their approaches based on recent head-to-heads, this is the place to start.
Liverpool were swarmed by City’s excellent pressing, which prevented the hosts from getting out and concentrated largely on right-back James Milner – targeted as the weak link by Phil Foden and Jack Grealish (leaning to the left from a false nine starting position).
Part of the problem was that Liverpool’s desire to play lots of long balls over the top of Man City’s high line disconnected them from their own midfield, giving City the edge in the press, although of more importance was the team selection.
Thiago to set the Liverpool tone
This time, Klopp will not have to play Milner or Curtis Jones – or even Jordan Henderson, who isn’t the most press-resistant of Liverpool players.
In other words, the visitors should be able to cope with Guardiola’s press a bit better with Trent Alexander-Arnold at right-back and Naby Keita and Thiago as outlets.
Thiago is Liverpool’s most important player: his technical ability sets the tone, and against on-rushing City midfielders, he was sorely missed in the reverse fixture. His presence should mean Liverpool have more luck with their direct balls in behind Guardiola’s high defensive line.
Mohamed Salah and Sadio Mane will be instructed to stay wide, in the hope of stretching City’s back three (Kyle Walker will remain deep, for his recovery speed) and getting played in after moments when the hosts’ defensive line is drawn forward in pursuit of attacking space.
Historically, this tactic has worked well for Liverpool; keep an eye on Alexander-Arnold playing long, fading cross-field passes for Mane in particular.
The other noteworthy point of attack for Liverpool is attempting to isolate Rodri, who can get caught alone at the base of midfield when City’s two number eights are roaming forward.
The slight vulnerability here should mean Klopp starts Roberto Firmino for the Brazilian’s capacity to drop deep and link the play in the gaps around Rodri, in turn forcing a City centre-back to step up and disrupt the defensive line.
Half-spaces open for Guardiola's City
Man City’s attack will be focused more on finding room in the half-spaces, where Kevin De Bruyne and Foden will look to roam in order to take advantage of the natural gaps in Liverpool’s 4-3-3.
One of the reasons this game is always so entertaining is Liverpool’s commitment to a high front three, which means there are points of entry on the outside of Klopp’s three-man midfield. This happens to be where City’s most creative players enjoy operating.
Generally speaking, Liverpool should have the quality to shut this down and keep the game tense and claustrophobic – but eventually the match will, as it always does, spiral out of control.
Once Liverpool start counter-attacking with success they will become stretched, in turn leaving the half-spaces open for City to bound back the other way (Guardiola plays with greater urgency and verticality against Klopp, recognising it is playing into Liverpool’s hands to recycle possession).
Consequently, the individual midfield battles, lurching from one end to the other, may be decisive; De Bruyne and Thiago will occupy one area with Ilkay Gundogan and Keita or Henderson in the other.
If there is a weakness in the Liverpool team it is on their right side, where Salah does relatively little defensive work and Alexander-Arnold can be isolated and beaten – even if his defensive weaknesses are often exaggerated.
Man City naturally move to the left flank anyway, and whichever forward Guardiola picks as his false nine they will probably come out to that flank to double up on Alexander-Arnold, creating potentially the most important battle of the contest.
But more likely, the game – and the title race – will hinge on one moment and one centimetre, a sudden burst of clarity amid the fire and the fury.
Enjoy the first of a potential four matches that, in years to come, may well be looked back on as the pinnacle of the sport.
