Manchester United look to avoid going a third game without a win when they face out-of-form Southampton on Tuesday. Joe Townsend looks at the betting.
Football betting tips: Premier League
0.5pt Anthony Martial to score first at 5/1 (General)
1pt Anthony Martial to score anytime at 9/5 (Sky Bet, BetVictor)
0.5pt Mason Greenwood to score first at 13/2 (General)
1pt Mason Greenwood to score anytime at 9/4 (Sky Bet, BetVictor)
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Man Utd v Southampton
- 20:15 GMT on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 1/2 | Draw 10/3 | Away 11/2
Just as everyone was getting excited about Manchester United, they've hit a little blip. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer will be keen for his side to pick up three points against Southampton on Tuesday night to ensure it remains just that.
This time last week they were heading into a home game against rock-bottom Sheffield United, statistically the worst team ever at the halfway stage of a Premier League season, knowing that victory would send them back to the top.
Even though Manchester United were poor, and the Blades valiant, the latter's collecting of just their second win of the campaign was not without its fortune.
The Red Devils were then involved in a forgettable goalless draw with Arsenal on Saturday - a match they should have won. Edinson Cavani missed two glorious chances, and like defeat against Sheffield United, Solskjaer's men comfortably won the expected goals (xG) battle.
There shouldn't be any panic at Old Trafford, as over a long period of time United have consistently been doing enough to win.
The same cannot be said of Southampton, who have tasted victory only once in eight Premier League fixtures.
Even during their early-season purple patch, Ralph Hasenhuttl's team were often being outplayed but scraping to three points. Before the weekend they had lost the xG battle in nine of their last 11 league games. Ironic, then, that Saturday's 1-0 home loss to Aston Villa came having been thoroughly dominant.
Saints laid siege to the Villa goal in the closing stages, with a combination of last-ditch defending, excellent goalkeeping and a marginal VAR call denying them; the xG numbers, Southampton (2.51xG) v Villa (0.77xG), fairly reflect the contest.
Manchester United should win this game, but there is simply no value in backing them at 1/2.
Despite the reverse fixture being both the zenith of 'Sack Race Solskjaer' and genesis of 'Title-chasing Ole' as Cavani's half-time introduction inspired United to fight back from 2-0 down and win 3-2, I actually see it being short on goals.
Southampton, have scored just two league goals since December 15, and seven of their last eight fixtures have seen under 2.5 goals. United's last seven games have involved three or fewer goals.
Under 2.5 goals with no outright thrown in, and Man United under 3.5 goals both come out at 13/10. Personally, it's just not quite enough for me, but if we're nudging 6/4 by kick-off I'd probably take the latter on to a decent stake.
Instead, where I think the value lies is in the goalscorer markets with Mason Greenwood and Anthony Martial.
The duo are near enough certain to start having been benched on Saturday, such is the regularity with which Solskjaer changes his front three. Neither has been in sparkling form this season, but they are showing positive signs.
Greenwood scored his first goal in 11 games when he netted against Liverpool in the FA Cup just over a week ago, and he must be scratching his head over how he didn't follow that up in defeat by Sheffield United. He missed a near enough identical chance, one of four attempts in just an hour on the pitch.
With Marcus Rashford, Cavani and Bruno Fernandes too short to be worthy of consideration, the teenager is generally priced at 13/2 to break the deadlock, and 9/4 to score anytime (Sky Bet, BetVictor), both of which I'm happy to hold an interest in.
The same goes for Martial.
The Frenchman may not have scored in his last five Premier League outings, but he has registered 10 attempts on goal in that time, a period that includes two appearances of under an hour and the forgettable goalless draw with Liverpool where I'm still not sure anyone had a shot.
He only has two league goals all season, but his xG is 5.12, which suggests he has at least been getting into the right positions.
A little skinnier than Greenwood (we're talking odds here) Martial can be taken at 5/1 across the board to score first and 9/5 anytime (Sky Bet, BetVictor).
For me, both offer excellent value, so I'll be splitting my stake accordingly.
Score prediction: Man Utd 2-0 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Man Utd v Southampton best bets
- Anthony Martial to score first at 5/1
- Anthony Martial to score anytime at 9/5
- Mason Greenwood to score first at 13/2
- Mason Greenwood to score anytime at 9/4
Odds correct at 13:00 GMT 01/02/21
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