Manchester United v Newcastle
Manchester United’s title credentials were always dubious, and the Red Devils now trail their city rivals Manchester City by 10 points after stuttering in recent weeks.
United’s 1-1 draw away at West Brom was underwhelming and it was unsurprisingly one of their worst displays yet this season in terms of expected goals (xG) created (WBA 1.20 - 0.61 MUN).
Bruno Fernandes’ brilliant volley (15%) brought United level on that occasion, and his goal-scoring exploits will be required here with fitness concerns over Anthony Martial and Edinson Cavani.
Once again the dynamic Fernandes was the catalyst behind United’s success in midweek, opening the scoring in the Europa League on Thursday.
The Portuguese netted a brace as Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s side stylishly dispatched a strong Real Sociedad team in Turin, comfortably winning 4-0 (xG: SOC 0.57 – 2.56 MUN).
Fernandes has been an utterly transformative force for United since his arrival last January, and he’s recorded an outstanding 0.54 expected goals per 95 minutes (xG/95) this term.
Once again, Fernandes should prove hard to contain here, especially for a Newcastle outfit who have conceded an average of 1.99 expected goals against (xGA) per game on the road this season.
Only Leeds (2.26 xGA per game) have been worst defensively away from home than Newcastle, and Steve Bruce’s side slumped to yet another away defeat at Chelsea on Monday.
The Magpies never troubled the Blues, creating just 0.71 xG with a smattering of small probability opportunities, and their attacking problems are exacerbated by Callum Wilson’s injury.
Wilson accounts for 40% of Newcastle’s goals this season and without his presence leading the line their chances of finding the back seem incredibly slim.
Also, it’s worth noting Manchester United’s excellent home defensive record (1.31 xGA per game), which makes backing MANCHESTER UNITED WIN TO NIL at 11/10 an obvious but confident selection.
Score prediction: Manchester United 2-0 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Manchester United v Newcastle best bets
- Manchester United Win to Nil at 11/10 (General)
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (19/02/21)
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