Manchester United and Liverpool meet for the second successive Sunday, this time in the FA Cup fourth round. Mark O'Haire has a preview and best bets.
Football betting tips: FA Cup
2pts Under 40 booking points in Man Utd v Liverpool at 11/10
1pt No player to be carded in Man Utd v Liverpool at 25/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Manchester United v Liverpool
- 17:00 GMT on BBC One
- Match Odds: Home 8/5 | Draw 23/10 | Away 13/8
Liverpool head to Old Trafford in the FA Cup on Sunday looking to bounce back from Thursday night's 1-0 defeat against Burnley at Anfield - a result Reds manager Jurgen Klopp branded "a massive punch in the face".
The Reds – unbeaten in 68 home Premier League games spanning 1,370 days prior – were undone by a late Ashley Barnes penalty and now sit six points behind league leaders Manchester United, and without a victory in five league fixtures.
The champions romped to their first top-flight title in 30 years last term but have fallen off significantly this season with Klopp finding the recent downturn difficult to explain. Since smashing Crystal Palace for seven before Christmas, the Reds have failed to score in four Premier League encounters despite firing in 87 shots at goal, including 27 against Burnley.
Those in the analytics industry would describe the slump as simple variance and this is highlighted by breaking down Liverpool’s attacking numbers.
Since scoring early on against West Brom at Anfield on 27 December, Klopp’s charges have created eight big chances, attempted 87 efforts at goal - 51 of which were from inside the penalty box - and generated an Expected Goals (xG) output of 7.10.
Running 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations of the xG values of those 87 shots shows Liverpool were more likely to score 10 goals than their zero goal return, with the most common occurrence being five goals.
Even with the eye test, the most hardened hater would have to agree the Merseysiders have been a little unfortunate despite falling below their high standards.
So how will Klopp approach Sunday teatime’s cup tie at Old Trafford? Traditionally, the German has preferred to focus his attention on the Premier League and Champions League, and with the Reds travelling to Tottenham on Thursday night, a degree of rotation is to be expected in the Liverpool ranks, although Roberto Firmino and Mo Salah should be recalled here.
United, meanwhile, boast a largely fully fit squad and are also expected to make changes of their own after overcoming Fulham in midweek. The Red Devils have been the Premier League’s best side over the past 12 months in terms of points accrued but the pre-match markets are making this match-up more of a pick ‘em with the duo virtually unable to be separated.
Home manager Ole Gunnar Solskjaer felt his side missed a big opportunity to fully assert their title credentials in failing to make the most of their chances in last Sunday's goalless draw between the pair, and the hosts deserve respect following a run of only one domestic defeat in 16 which dates back to the beginning of November.
With no points at stake, the hope is this weekend’s cup clash will deliver more entertainment and excitement than last week’s tepid affair but without the team sheets to hand it can be tricky to make a strong or solid call on the more traditional offerings. Therefore, I’ll be highlighting a couple of alternative angles in the cards markets that should appeal.
Firstly, under 40 booking points is offered at 11/10 with Sky Bet. Despite the supposed bitterness between the two famous north-west powerhouses, there’s only been an average of three bookings per game over the last nine meetings since 2015/16, while referee Craig Pawson has issued two cautions or fewer in six of 11 league dates in 2020-21.
The two teams combine to average a collective 2.70 yellow cards per Premier League game this season but traditionally cards decline in cup competitions - 56% of last season’s fourth-round ties produced a maximum of two cards, while in the previous round, 14 of 32 (44%) third-round contests saw fewer than three bookings, with five ties featuring none at all.
With that in mind, I’ll also have a small interest on the massive 25/1 (Sky Bet) for no card being issued. It’s a hugely inflated price due to the clubs involved – ordinarily this market would be offered around the 10/1 mark – and recent history suggests this showdown rarely escalates into the fierce or feisty battle it’s often hyped up to be.
Prediction: Manchester United 1-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Manchester United v Liverpool best bets
Opta facts
- After winning seven consecutive FA Cup ties against Liverpool between 1948 and 1999, Manchester United have lost two of their past three against the Reds in the competition.
- Liverpool have been eliminated from the FA Cup by Manchester United more than they have by any other opponent in the competition’s history (nine, including final defeats).
- Manchester United are unbeaten in their past seven home games against Liverpool in all competitions (W3 D4) since a 0-3 loss in March 2014. They last had a longer unbeaten run against Liverpool at Old Trafford between 1990-2000 (12 games).
- Since a 1-1 draw with West Ham in the 2015-16 quarter-final, Manchester United have won their past seven FA Cup home games without conceding a single goal.
- Liverpool have only reached the FA Cup fifth round in one of manager Jürgen Klopp’s five previous seasons at the club, doing so last term before being eliminated by Chelsea.
Odds correct at 1320 GMT (22/01/21)
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