Two in-form sides meet at Old Trafford on New Year’s evening as second-placed Manchester United host tidy travellers Aston Villa. Michael Beardmore has best bets and a preview.
Football betting tips: Manchester United v Aston Villa
1pt Aston Villa to have most corners at 7/4
0.5pt e.w Anwar El Ghazi to score first at 12/1 (e.w terms first 5 places at 1/3 odds)
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Manchester United v Aston Villa
- 20:00 GMT kick-off on Sky Sports Premier League
- Match odds: Home 7/10 | Draw 3/1 | Away 7/2
Three points behind leaders Liverpool just four games shy of the halfway point in the Premier League season – surely we have to consider Manchester United genuine title contenders now?
United have not always been entirely convincing, Tuesday's 1-0 injury-time winner against Wolves a case in point, but putting together a nine-game unbeaten run – seven wins in that sequence – while not being at their best is a hallmark of champions.
It’s the sort of thing Alex Ferguson’s decorated United teams did ad nauseam and while Ole Gunnar Solskjaer’s 2020/21 collective are nowhere near that realm yet, their record the past two months has been impressive.
But their title aspirations face a stern test on the opening evening of 2021 as Dean Smith’s away day specialists Aston Villa rock up at Old Trafford.
It’s more than 11 years since the Villans beat United – but if we’re touting the Red Devils as title hopefuls, then by the same stick Villa are real Champions League contenders, so consistently have they picked up results to sit fifth at the time of writing.
Five wins out of seven on the road, plus a draw at Chelsea, means Villa are not the rank outsiders they were when they deservedly claimed a 2-2 draw in this same fixture in December 2019.
So while United’s results have improved at home since early-season shockers against Crystal Palace (1-3) and Tottenham (1-6), I find the 7/10 or 8/11 generally available on a home win unappealing.
Stuck between two stools in backing a draw or Villa win at best prices of 17/5 and 18/5 respectively, the skinny odds of 6/5 on a Villa double chance (win or draw) or 2/1 by adding both teams to score to that bet offer little help.
That’s forced me to look elsewhere and I was surprised to see under 2.5 goals a generous shade of odds-against at 6/4 with several firms.
While United have been among the goals on their travels, their past five Old Trafford games – if you take out the madcap 6-2 win over Leeds (Villa will not approach this the way they did) – have seen results of 1-0, 0-0, 1-0, 0-1 and 0-0.
Three of Villa’s past five games have featured under 2.5 goals and the two that didn’t had red cards that opened the game up, so I like the price.
Elsewhere, we have profited on both Villa’s prowess in earning corners – 3/1 on 7+ at West Ham and 31/10 on a handicap at West Brom – and United’s comparative paucity of flag-kicks this season.
It makes sense then, to snap up the 7/4 on offer with Sky Bet and William Hill for Villa to have more corners at Old Trafford – United are averaging around five corners a game (77 in 15) and Villa seven (99 in 14).
Villa have won the corner count in nine of their past 11 games including five out of six away, while United have failed to win the flag-kick tally in each of their last four matches, even when they thumped Leeds 6-2. They had just two corners against Wolves in midweek.
Villa’s odds are dipping in this market as bookies cotton on but there is still value around – William Hill go 15/4 or 27/10 on Villa -2 and -1 corner handicaps but I’m happy with 7/4 on the straight race.
As a final flutter, I can’t ignore the 12/1 first scorer odds on Villa’s in-form winger Anwar El Ghazi, which we can also take as 4/1 virtually anytime with the 1/3 each way odds for the first five places offered by Betfair and Paddy Power.
The Dutchman has scored five goals in his past five games, registering 24 shots in that period and while opportunities might be slightly more limited against United, El Ghazi also has spot-kick duties to fall back on against a Red Devils side who have conceded three penalties at home this term.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Manchester United v Aston Villa: Best bets
Villa to have most corners at 7/4 (General)
Anwar El Ghazi to score first e.w at 12/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
Odds correct at 1300 GMT (30/12/20)
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