A Portuguese player has had the most shots in the Premier League for a Manchester club this season. No shock, perhaps, except that the club is Manchester City and the shot-happy Portuguese is Joao Cancelo.
As Cristiano Ronaldo prepares for his first Manchester derby since 2009 and a meeting with the club that, briefly, he seemed about to join in the summer, it is a clash between tactical opposites.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer is the former striker who fielded two No. 9s, in Edinson Cavani and Ronaldo, in beating Tottenham on Saturday.
Pep Guardiola is the ex-midfielder who has been the scourge of the centre-forward and is likely to pick a false nine at Old Trafford this weekend.
Ronaldo doing what Ronaldo does
While the neighbours' striking statistics are very different, Ronaldo’s are entirely typical for him.
He may not have had the most shots for United – Mason Greenwood has 29 to his 27 – but surely he soon will.
His average of 4.39 shots per 90 minutes is the most in the division of those who have played enough minutes to chart; it could be the sixth successive season, across three leagues, when he has averaged the most.
🔥 Five of Cristiano Ronaldo's nine goals this season have come in the #UCL as he saves Manchester United again.
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💪 In the seven different games he's scored in, #MUFC have won five, drawn one and lost just once. #ATAMUN pic.twitter.com/jNxk4v8NOv
The player who averages the most for City, Ferran Torres (3.86), is the closest thing to a No. 9 in Guardiola’s squad, but is now injured.
City have more of a collective commitment to shooting; United grant it to a select few. Four of Solskjaer’s squad – Greenwood, Ronaldo, Bruno Fernandes and Paul Pogba – have had at least 20 shots, but no one else is in double figures.
Cancelo the atypical full-back
Cancelo has had 22, totalling chances equating to 1.60 xG, seven more than any other defender in the division, but he is the only City player in the twenties.
Nine more have had at least 11 though and all of those have scored at least once, whereas Cancelo is yet to open his Premier League account for the campaign - though he has scored twice in the Champions League already.
City’s midfielder-heavy team is also reflected in the way that Raheem Sterling and Riyad Mahrez are likely substitutes; along with Torres and Kevin De Bruyne, they are their players with the most shots per minute.
But if Phil Foden is the probable false nine on Saturday, it is worth noting that he actually averages more shots on target per 90 than Ronaldo (1.74 to 1.62).
City can argue their method of sharing the shots around has produced a more creative team. While they have only scored one more goal than United, City's xG is 22.6.
Their neighbours’ is just 16.8, but fine finishers like Marcus Rashford, Greenwood and Fernandes have enabled United to beat their xG.
In a way, United’s 3-0 win at Tottenham was an argument for selecting multiple strikers: they posted their second lowest xG of the Premier League campaign (1.12) but scored three goals, courtesy of clinical finishes.
The same day, a striker-less City team had their lowest expected goals of their campaign (0.79) in losing to Crystal Palace.
Do Man City miss Ferran Torres?
While the debate if City require a striker continues, their season can be divided into two parts: with Torres and without, when he was benched or sidelined.
The Spaniard started the first four games and if the caveat is that they included matches with Norwich and 10-man Arsenal, City made more chances than in their other six matches (which, it should be noted, included trips to Chelsea and Liverpool).
They averaged 2.75 goals per game with a striker, 1.50 without. Their average xG was 3.04 with Torres starting and 1.73 without. They averaged 21 shots a match with the Spaniard and 16 without. Torres had 13 of those shots himself, scoring twice against Arsenal.
👍 It's been a great start for those who read @TomC_22's Champions League top scorer preview.
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🤞 Lewandowski (2) and Lukaku (1) are both up and running so tonight it's the turn of Erling Haaland and 50/1 chance Ferran Torres.
📊 Here are his season stats so far:#MCFC #UCL pic.twitter.com/99dPBI2a3U
But if Guardiola is indelibly associated with Lionel Messi, rather than Ronaldo, he used to have a player with Ronaldo-esque traits.
In his first four seasons under Guardiola, Sergio Aguero averaged between 4.13 and 5.21 shots per 90 minutes every season; in three of those campaigns, he had the most shots per 90 in the Premier League.
Last season, De Bruyne ranked fourth in that chart, but he was the only City player in the top 19. They had no one in the top 11 for shots or top 15 for shots on target.
They still won the title.
Ruthless Ronaldo
The trade-off in taking a striker out is apparent in other areas of the pitch. While Ronaldo had 65 touches on his second United debut, against Newcastle, that is the only game when he has made 50 since his return.
Foden had 54 and 53 as a false nine in the away wins at Club Brugge and Brighton, completing a total of 68 passes over those two matches as he got three assists.
Apart from the Newcastle match, Ronaldo has not completed more than 27 passes in a match for United this season. He saves his efforts for goalscoring and has scored more goals than anyone else in history.
And on Saturday, he will be in a Manchester derby against a City team without a specialist goalscorer.
