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Man United v Tottenham tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Tottenham travel to Old Trafford to take on Manchester United, with both sides bidding for a top-four spot. Jake Pearson previews the fixture, picking out his best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Manchester United to win at 23/20 (Betfred)
Manchester City kindly provided Ralf Rangnick and his Manchester United team with a humbling experience in the Manchester derby last weekend, Pep Guardiola’s men running out 4-1 winners at the Etihad.
It was the first time since the German coach’s appointment that United had faced one of the traditional ‘big six’, a severe examination of just how far, if at all, the Red Devils have come since their dismissal of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer; the result suggests, not very.
It is not quite as simple as that though, United matching their city rivals in most respects throughout the first half, but as has happened far too often this season, a lacklustre second half allowed the Citizens to take complete control and eventually run riot – United failing to register a single shot in the second 45 minutes whilst also surrendering 79% of possession to their hosts.
Rangnick may be ruing the fact that his side did not take full advantage of the ‘easy’ schedule he has been afforded thus far, because it certainly gets harder from hereon in, this hosting of Tottenham followed by their second leg of the Champions League round of 16 tie against Atletico Madrid, with Liverpool and Leicester their two subsequent opponents.
With Spurs just two points behind the Old Trafford outfit, and with two games in hand, this is now a must-win for Rangnick’s side.
Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Man United 11/10 | Draw 5/2 | Tottenham 12/5
Tottenham arrive in Manchester on the back of successive Premier League wins, and emphatic ones at that, putting a total of nine goals past Leeds and Everton without reply in their two most recent league fixtures.
To perfectly demonstrate the inconsistent nature of Antonio Conte’s side, however, a 1-0 defeat to relegation threatened Burnley immediately proceeded those wins, while an extra time FA Cup defeat at the hands of Sky Bet Championship side Middlesbrough came between their trip to Elland Road and their hosting of the Toffees.
How much of those two wide-margin victories was down to Tottenham’s brilliance, and how much was owing to the fact that they were taking on the worst and fifth-worst defensive outfits in the Premier League?
The Jekyll and Hyde nature of Spurs makes it incredibly difficult to assess what sort of Tottenham team is going to turn up, and what sort of performance they are likely to put in, and while United are certainly far from the finished article, they are arguably the more consistent of the two teams, and that could give them the edge here.
Rangnick’s time in charge of United has seen a lot of what could be referred to as ‘variance’.
Because football is low scoring and results are not always necessarily reflective of how a team has played, variance accounts for ‘unexpected’ or ‘undeserved’ results.
This may all sound a bit wishy-washy, but expected goals (xG) can give us a much more rounded vision of how a team is performing, and though United have admittedly had an easier run of fixtures than some other teams, their ‘process’ has been good under Rangnick.
In fact, at Old Trafford they have won they ‘xG battle’ in all but one game under the German – his first game at home to Crystal Palace back in December – with their process reading xGF 1.89 – xGA 0.88; more than acceptable.
It is also important not to place too much stock in the results that immediately proceed this fixture, with an early overreaction having already kicked in – United having drifted from odds-on to odds-against – there is every chance that the Red Devils will move back towards their original price as kick-off approaches.
MANCHESTER UNITED’s opening price of 10/11 seems much closer to the true probability that they will claim all three points here, so the 11/10 now available about them to see off this unpredictable Tottenham side makes appeal.
Man United v Tottenham best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Manchester United to win at 23/20 (Betfred)
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-0 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 0910 GMT (10/03/22)
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