Football betting tips: Man City vs Red Star Belgrade
0.5pt Kyle Walker to score anytime at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Julian Alvarez to be shown a card at 18/1 (Sky Bet)
Celtic beating Barcelona 2-1, Sheriff winning at the Bernabéu, Real Mallorca beating Arsenal. Three Champions League shocks that spring to mind.
At 40/1, a win for FK Crvena zvezda - better known as Red Star Belgrade - at the Etihad would be right up there with one of the biggest in the history of the competition.
Pep Guardiola’s side maintained their 100% record in the Premier League on Saturday with a 3-1 victory over West Ham, the third time in as many games that City have failed to keep a clean sheet.
The hosts have not lost at home in the Champions League in three seasons, however, the last defeat coming in 2020 to Lyon.
What are the best bets?
At 1/33, Man City have a 97.1% chance of victory on Tuesday.
Such lopsided odds make bets tricky to find - a -2 handicap win for the hosts is 8/15 - and considering this I have decided to delve into the alternative markets for some chunky prices to provide some interest.
KYLE WALKER is 14/1 TO SCORE ANYTIME, the largest price of any City player. He is as short as 19/4 elsewhere.
Walker’s only had two shots this season, both came at Bramall Lane, and he has only scored one goal in 46 Champions League appearances. Red Star should come to Manchester and deploy a low block, inviting pressure and shots from range.
Last season, City scored 21 goals in six games at the Etihad in this competition and some unexpected names chipped in.
John Stones scored from range against Dortmund, Rico Lewis grabbed one against Sevilla, Manuel Akanji found the net against Real Madrid and Rodri bagged against Bayern.
With the hosts odds-on to score four or more goals, I think it is worth looking to unlikely sources. Walker did bag his first goal for England during the last international break and is a value bet at double-figure odds.
JULIAN ALVAREZ is 18/1 TO BE SHOWN A CARD, the largest price of any player in this market. It is simply too big to ignore.
Whether the game will be competitive enough is the obvious concern, but Alvarez has notched up three cards already this season, one coming domestically. In continental competitions, he’s averaged 0.10 cards per 90.
Joao Pinheiro is the man with the whistle. He’s given 19 bookings in his native Liga Portugal and five in his only Champions League appearance to date.
BuildABet @ 235/1
- Manchester City to win
- Julian Alvarez to be carded
- Kyle Walker to score anytime
Man City only lost one of 33 games at home last season, and they only lost three at the Etihad the season before.
Pep’s side should make lite work of Red Star considering the hosts put three past Bayern, four past Real Madrid, five past FC Copenhagen and seven past RB Leipzig.
Score prediction: Manchester City 4-0 FK Crvena zvezda (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Team news
Kevin De Bruyne is the only long-term absentee for the hosts. John Stones, Mateo Kovacic and Jack Grealish are all doubts.
Jeremy Doku should start on the left wing after grabbing a goal against West Ham at the weekend.
Aleksandar Katai is the only player unavailable for the visitors. Barak Bakhar deployed a back four at the weekend but should revert to a back three for the trip to the Etihad.
Predicted line-ups
Manchester City: Ederson; Walker, Akanji, Dias, Gvardiol; Rodri, Silva; Foden, Alvarez, Doku; Haaland
FK Crvena zvezda: Glazer; Mijailovic, Dragovic, Rodic; Bukari, Krasso, Stamenic, Kangwa, Mitrovic; Lucic, Olayinka
Match facts
Match facts to appear here...
Odds correct at 1900 BST (18/09/23)
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