Jake Pearson previews the Premier League clash between Manchester City and Watford, picking out his best bets and score prediction.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Under 18.5 Manchester City shots at 1/1 (Unibet)
Pep Guardiola made no bones about the task that lies ahead for Manchester City.
“There are six games left and if we win all the games, we are champions. If we don’t win all the games, Liverpool will be champions.”
Those were the words the City boss used following his side’s 3-0 victory over Brighton on Wednesday, a game in which they demonstrated their ruthless streak, scoring three times from an expected goals for (xGF) total of 1.39.
In fact, the Citizens have relied quite heavily on their clinical finishing of late, their xGF over the last five matches averaging out at 1.23 per game, a long way off their seasonal average of 2.35.
It has been a City side invoking more control, a City side doing what is necessary to get over the finish line.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
Man City 1/14 | Draw 19/2 | Watford 28/1
They should have little trouble sweeping aside a Watford team that look destined to be plying their trade in the second tier of English football next season, seven points adrift of safety with just six games remaining.
A run of three successive defeats hasn’t helped Roy Hodgson’s cause either, and the last thing the Hornets need right now is a trip to the Etihad.
This may not be the thorough hiding that many are expecting though.
Manchester City begin their two-legged Champions League semi-final tie against Real Madrid on Tuesday, and in all honesty, if there is any remaining game, in either competition, in which City can afford to take their foot off the gas, it is this one.
While a comfortable home win is still expected, a constant bombardment on Ben Foster’s goal is not necessarily on the cards; City would happily take a 2-0 victory and walk away.
For this reason, backing UNDER 18.5 MANCHESTER CITY SHOTS at a price of even money makes appeal, with the line looking a little on the ambitious side.
City are averaging 18.44 shots per match at the Etihad this season, but they have only actually hit 19 or more in six of their 16 home games.
The odd rampant occasion – most notably when taking 31 shots against Leeds – have skewed the figures slightly, and when removing the fixtures with the most and least shots (sometimes known as the trimmed average), City are only actually averaging 15.81 shots per home game.
Game state is an important factor when considering shots bets, and once the home side get their noses in front, they are likely to reduce the intensity.
A comfortable victory doesn’t always lead to plenty of opportunities, and given City’s creative output has taken a bit of a hit recently, siding against the hosts to take on plenty of speculative efforts looks a good way to approach this fixture.
Man City v Watford best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Under 18.5 Manchester City shots at 1/1 (Unibet)
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-0 Watford (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 1440 BST (21/04/22)
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