Looking to continue his fine tipping form, Joe Rindl has the best bets and preview as Manchester City host Southampton in the Premier League.
Football betting tips: Manchester City v Southampton
1pt Phil Foden to score anytime at 41/20 (Sporting Index)
In case you haven’t heard already, last time out Manchester City lost to rivals Manchester United to end their incredible run of 21 consecutive victories.
For all the build up, the game was effectively over after 50 seconds. City forward Gabriel Jesus brought down Anthony Martial in the penalty area before Bruno Fernandes dispatched the spot-kick.
United were able to sit back and prove why their last three league encounters with big six sides had finished 0-0, hitting City on the break to complete a timely reality check for Pep Guardiola’s men.
Manchester may be red this week but come May the Blue Moon will rise once again. City are 11 points clear of their neighbours and are heavy favourites to extend their cushion at the top to a pre-derby lead of 14 against the Saints on Wednesday night.
Why are Southampton struggling?
Southampton are just seven points clear of the drop. In early January Sky Bet offered up 750/1 odds for Southampton to be relegated. A torrid run saw them drop down to 33/1 last week with the same firm.
Just why the side who were briefly top of the table in November are now nervously looking over their shoulder was explained brilliantly in Liam Kelly’s feature last weekend.
Using expected goals analysis, Liam found that forwards Che Adams and Danny Ings were being starved of service, with their early season goal scoring form hiding the Saints’ pitiful expected goals (xG) stats.
A scrappy 2-0 win over Sheffield United in their previous game has given Southampton some breathing room. But surely it’s City’s to lose at the Etihad.
What is Expected Goals (xG)?
- Expected Goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected Goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected Goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Who should I back at the Etihad?
For the first hour of proceedings against United, the Sky Blues never looked like opening their account. It was only after Phil Foden was introduced in the 71st minute that City began to create meaningful chances.
The 20-year-old has to start against Southampton. Foden has been playing further forward this season and is averaging an intriguing 2.36 shots per game. Only Kevin de Bruyne and Riyhad Mahez average more for Guardiola’s side.
In his last three league starts, the England international has twice found the net with goals at Everton and Liverpool.
FODEN TO SCORE ANYTIME at 41/20 with Sporting Index presents real value in a game that’s otherwise loaded with short odds.
Foden is also generally a 5/2 shot to notch at least one assist, but backing goalscoring is the better play. City’s number 47 has almost twice as many goals this season as assists at 11 compared to six.
Given the chance he’s much more likely to take a shot rather than setting up a teammate.
Manchester City v Southampton score prediction and best bets
- Phil Foden to score anytime at 41/20 (Sporting Index)
Score prediction: Man City 2-0 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1630 GMT on 08/03/21
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