Despite Liverpool's healthy lead their Champions League tie is still not totally done and dusted - we look at how the tie will be decided.
Taking a 3-0 lead into the second leg of a Champions League quarter-final should make the game a walk in the park, but not when you’re facing Manchester City away from home – on a ground you’ve already lost 5-0 in the same season.
Man City v Liverpool odds
- 1/7 Liverpool to qualify
- 4/1 Man City to qualify
- 18/1 Either team in extra time
- 40/1 Either team on penalties
So, do City fans have reasons to hope when going to the Etihad? Or should Liverpool fans take the trip along the M62 fully confident of completing the job?
Well, with the two teams involved being so exciting to watch going forward, and so fragile at times at the back, anything really could happen. But what are the main factors to consider for the big game?
Early goal
Despite the big lead Liverpool have piled up, the first goal is still absolutely crucial on Tuesday, for both sides. Should the visitors score first, that then leaves City needing to score five due to away goals, but if Guardiola’s side can go ahead early then all of a sudden the mood will change.
City showed against Manchester United that they can carve open teams at will at home, and while they suffered that disastrous defeat they could well have gone in 4-0 up at half time on Saturday had Sergio Aguero been on the pitch.
City have won by four goals or more a whopping nine times this season, while they have four 3-0 wins which would force extra time on the night so they have the firepower to get the job done – which is why Jurgen Klopp and his players aren’t counting their chickens just yet.
To score in the first 10 minutes: Man City 7/2 Liverpool 15/2
Reds approach
It's advantage Liverpool after they blitzed aside Man City at Anfield...
— Football on BT Sport (@btsportfootball) April 5, 2018
⚽️ 12' Salah
⚽️ 21' Oxlade-Chamberlain
⚽️ 31' Mané
All the highlights in 60 seconds ⏱ pic.twitter.com/VVlABVhpju
Perhaps the biggest factor in the game may actually be how Liverpool approach the game rather than City, who have no option but to go for broke. Klopp’s side have seemingly only one way of playing, but in the second half against City and for the majority of the Merseyside derby they showed a more mature defensive approach.
That could tempt Klopp to try and keep the back door shut while playing on the break with the pace of Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah (if fit) being used to try and pinch the all-important first goal. Starting a game in that fashion, though, would be quite foreign to this Liverpool team, and it’s also a hard mind set to get out of if things aren’t going well.
Several Liverpool players have said they’ll play to win the game, which looks the best way to approach it, but that’s a lot easier said than done sitting on a 3-0 lead.
First team to score: Man City 2/5 Liverpool 7/4 No goal 28/1
Line-ups
Liverpool’s injury list makes nice reading for City, especially with star man Salah missing the Merseyside derby with a groin injury. All signs point to him being fit for Tuesday but given the nature of the problem, and the explosiveness of the player, it may be a risk for Klopp to start the Egyptian.
He then faces a huge dilemma of starting him or putting him on the bench in case of emergency, which could in turn hand the initiative to City – not to mention that Danny Ings is probably the most likely replacement with injuries elsewhere.
Jordan Henderson is also suspended while Emre Can, who played well in the Anfield league win, looks to be out with a back injury leaving Jamies Milner, Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain and Georginio Wijnaldum as the untested but likely midfield three to be selected.
Sterling made a difference at Anfield, but he also missed a number of guilt-edged chances in the Manchester derby, but Aguero may well start on Tuesday, especially given he has six goals in 12 Premier League games against Liverpool.
First goalscorer: Aguero 3/1 Jesus 3/1 Sterling 4/1 Salah 6/1
Derby day damage
Liverpool may have injury problems, but their 0-0 draw at Goodison gave them a rather sedate run-out and allowed Klopp to try a new formation and crucially rest his starting full-backs Andrew Robertson and Trent Alexander-Arnold, who both starred last week.
By contrast to their largely non-descript lunchtime game, City endured a nightmare against arch rivals Manchester United as they let a two-goal lead slip during a dramatic second-half collapse.
City should have been out of sight after a dominant first half, and while that 45 minutes will have pleased Guardiola, Klopp will have enjoyed the second half goals United scored as City looked far from comfortable at the back.
That should give Klopp huge belief that his side can score - they’ve only failed to hit the net seven times this season – and City’s defence on Saturday will have made him and his team aware that even if City score themselves there’s always a chance of finding a way through.
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Odds correct as of 1300 BST 09/04/2018.
