After a 2.5 point winner in the first leg of Man City v Gladbach, Jake Osgathorpe is back with a two-point best bet for the second leg.
Football betting tips: Man City v Borussia Mönchengladbach
2pts Manchester City win and Under 3.5 Goals at 6/5 (bet365)
Manchester City are in full control of this tie thanks to a 2-0 win in the first leg at the Puskás Aréna. The sides now return to Budapest with Borussia Mönchengladbach having it all to do.
The opening leg was as controlled a European performance as you are likely to see this season, with Pep Guardiola’s team picking off their German opponents and rarely being threatened themselves.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
It was another impressive defensive display from City.
They suffocated Gladbach’s counter attack impressively, with the Foals mustering just 0.51 expected goals (xG) according to Infogol.
Ederson to have an easy night
Manchester City’s defence is the driving force behind their surge to the summit of the Premier League table, their progression through the Champions League group stage, to the Carabao Cup final and FA Cup quarters.
Since defeat to Tottenham in the Premier League back in November, City have allowed an average of just 0.67 expected goals against (xGA) in 22 league matches.
That is an incredible figure, and just highlights how Pep’s side are now conceding barely any chances, and very few of a high-probability.
In their seven Champions League matches this season, they have allowed an eye-watering 0.31 xGA; I think it's highly unlikely Gladbach will cause too many issues in this second leg.
Gladbach in disarray
In the other corner, Borussia Mönchengladbach are on an incredibly bad run of form that started after the announcement that manager Marco Rose would join Dortmund at the end of the season.
They have lost six straight in the league leaving them in the bottom half of the Bundesliga table, and a usually high-octane attacking team has averaged a measly 1.00 expected goals for (xGF) in that time.
They are not the same team that beat Serie A leaders Inter Milan to second spot in their Champions League group.
Interestingly though, they haven’t been heavily beaten in that period, and that is because they have allowed just 1.04 xGA per game, so their matches have been cagey ones with few chances at either end.
This should be no different, with Gladbach aiming to stay in the tie for as long as possible before having a go late on.
Value in a low-scoring City win
It's hard to make a case for anything other than a Manchester City win.
They are in incredible form, and while their attack hasn’t been massively prolific, their defence has, meaning most of their recent matches have seen under 3.5 goals.
City have won 17 of their last 18 in the league, with 10 of those also seeing under 3.5, while in the UCL this season a MANCHESTER CITY WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS bet would have landed in five of seven fixtures.
Expect another routine win for the bookies' Champions League favourites, and while I was tempted by a City win to nil, the bigger price available for a low-scoring City win appeals again.
Man City v Borussia Mönchengladbach best bets and score prediction
- 2pt Manchester City to win and Under 3.5 Goals at 6/5 (bet365)
Score prediction: Man City 2-0 Borussia Mönchengladbach (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 1050 GMT (15/03/21)
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