Sunday's evening game in the Premier League sees in-form Manchester City take on Crystal Palace. Joe Rindl has a preview and best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Man City to win and under 3.5 goals at 23/20
1pt Man City to lead after 15 mins at 5/2
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Manchester City v Crystal Palace
- 19:15 GMT on Sky Sports Main Event
- Match odds: Home 1/7 | Draw 7/1 | Away 16/1
The form book is strongly in the hosts’ favour as title-chasing Manchester City take on midtable Crystal Palace on Sunday night.
Man City have won each of their last four Premier League games, cantering to wins in each.
A victory would also extend City’s unbeaten run to nine games, and I really can’t see Palace, with one win from their previous seven, ending that sequence under the lights.
Are Palace still a bogey team for the top six? I don’t think so. Since their victory over Manchester United in September, they’ve been outclassed by Chelsea and hit for seven against Liverpool, while they relied on stunning goalkeeping from Vicente Guaita and a late Jeffrey Schlupp goal to take a point against Tottenham.
Roy Hodgson may have revolutionised Palace’s attack by playing Wilfried Zaha through the middle, but against the best, they’re now a defensive-minded player short in central midfield.
Only Leeds and West Brom have conceded more goals in the Premier League than the South-London side and it’s no surprise the bookies have City 1/50 to score at any time.
But it’s the time of Palace's goals against that interest me. If you think City will score first then I’d take a punt on them doing so inside the opening 15 minutes.
In the last five games in which Palace have conceded first, they've done so in the first quarter of an hour three times. The outliers were a 23rd-minute Harry Kane goal in their draw with Spurs and a very late Callum Wilson winner against Newcastle, a game that looked destined to finish 0-0.
Manchester City to lead after 15 mins at 5/2 with William Hill seems brilliant odds given those stats.
And that’s before we’ve taken into account the Cityzens’ numbers. Yes they’ve only netted on the right side of the first 15 once in their past four, but openers in the 16th and 18th minutes against Chelsea and Southampton are hiding the fact they’re very quick starters.
No side has kept more clean sheets (eight) this season than City, and since they’ve started their eight-game unbeaten run, they’ve only conceded twice. The hosts have the league’s best defence, and almost 40 percent of the league goals they’ve let in this season came in one blip in their 5-2 loss to Leicester in September.
I’m very tempted by Betfair's 5/6 on City to win to nil, but I just don't think the value is there when it's been trading at odds-against for the majority of the campaign.
But there is value in combining that with City's lack of potency at the other end - 14 of City's last 18 victories in all competitions have seen under 3.5 goals. It's 23/20 to happen on Sunday, and that's good enough for me.
Score prediction: Manchester City 2-0 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Manchester City v Crystal Palace best bets
Odds correct at 15:00 GMT (14/01/21)
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