Joe Townsend has a preview and best bets as Leeds face Leicester in Monday Night Football, with James Maddison tipped to catch the eye.
Recommended bets
1pt James Maddison to have 3+ total shots at 7/4
0.5pt e.w. James Maddison first goalscorer at 10/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Leeds v Leicester
- 20:00 GMT on Sky Sports Premier League
- Match odds: Home 8/5 | Draw 5/2 | Away 8/5
Both teams should go into this contest in high spirits after superb results last time out. Leeds ended Aston Villa's 100% start to the Premier League campaign with a Patrick Bamford-inspired 3-0 away win and Leicester pinched a 1-0 victory at Arsenal.
The Foxes have been action since that Sunday trip to north London, winning 2-1 at AEK Athens in the Europa League on Thursday, but for Leeds it's been a golden 10-day rest period - so rare in this season of unprecedented fixture congestion.
While an emphatic scoreline was evidence enough of the Whites' dominance at Villa Park, their performance that night said far more. The absence of midfield lynchpin Kalvin Phillips and multiple defenders meant Marcelo Bielsa was forced to rejig his team, something he was still doing 20 minutes into the match when he made a tactical substitution.
Throw into the mix that Leeds were only four days on from a Monday Night Football defeat by Wolves and the energy they displayed, particularly in the early stages, was breathtaking. It made Villa's hitherto perfect record look laughable.
π Patrick Bamford has scored a second-half Premier League hat-trick.
β Sporting Life Football (@SportingLifeFC) October 23, 2020
π¨ THIS IS πππ A DRILL!
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You'd be no fool in taking Leeds at near enough 2/1, but I could say the same for Leicester.
Victories at Manchester City and Arsenal were built in exactly the same manner, as Brendan Rodgers' usually possession-based team frustrated their opponents by packing men behind the ball.
They restricted City to five and Arsenal to four shots on target, despite the pair having a respective 57% and 72% possession. The Foxes, meanwhile, were clinical in scoring with one of their two shots on target at the Emirates and with five of their seven at the Etihad (three of those were penalties).
It's hard to envisage Leicester playing differently when they get to Elland Road, as Leeds' impressive start to life in the Premier League has earned them a level of respect not usually afforded to newly-promoted teams - as shown by the Whites' last home fixture against Wolves, which followed a very similar pattern.
With that in mind I see the 11/10 across the board for under 2.5 goals as being the way to go, avoiding an outright punt. Under 2.5 goals has paid out in three of Leeds' past four league games, and in Leicester's last two.
Elsewhere, I think James Maddison is a man to back in the shots market.
The midfielder recently returned from injury after missing the start of the season and has been a focal point of Leicester's attacking play. Against Arsenal he operated in a front three without a recognised striker until Jamie Vardy's second-half introduction, and managed four shots on goal - the majority a result of quick counter attacks.
As the Foxes' primary set-piece taker his likelihood of having an effort are boosted further.
In just three starts and four short substitute appearances, he has registered 12 shots in all competitions - an average of 3.5 per 90 minutes. The fact he is willing to having a pop is emphasised by 75% of his efforts coming from outside the area.
He has started Leicester's past three games, having three, four and three shots in each match. Backing him to continue that 3+ total shots run is 7/4 with Sky Bet and looks a really smart play even allowing for the fact this could be reasonably tight.
Given his form, a goal just feels inevitable for the England international, who netted nine in his opening 24 matches of 2019/20 before Leicester's form dropped off a cliff. He scored off the bench at Man City earlier in the season and against Zorya in the Europa League more recently.
His 17/4 anytime price with Betway isn't bad, but 10/1 each-way with Sky Bet is the way to go to small stakes. I prefer that to the same big price on offer for him to score from outside the area, but that's also an option to pique the interest.
Score prediction: Leeds 1-1 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Best bets:
Odds correct on 1200 BST (30/10/20)
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