Play-off hopefuls Luton and QPR face off at Kenilworth Road on Sunday lunchtime. EFL expert Michael Beardmore previews the game and picks out two best bets.
When it comes to the race for the play-offs in any division, timing and momentum can be key – and Sunday lunchtime’s Sky Bet Championship meeting features two teams at opposite ends of the scale on those fronts.
On one hand, we have Luton Town, whose haul of 32 points from the past 15 matches (W10 D2 L3) has catapulted the Hatters into the top six, a position their underlying metrics suggest they deserve.
Their opponents QPR, meanwhile, have dropped off significantly in recent weeks, collecting just five points from the last 21 available and losing three straight away league games plus one in the FA Cup.
Kick-off time: 12:00 GMT, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Football
Such contrasting form leaves me a trifle baffled that Luton – strong at home and whose only defeat at Kenilworth Road in their past nine games came against Chelsea in the cup – can be found at odds-against in the betting.
Some firms go as big as 5/4 on a Hatters win and I’m happy to recommend that but we can get an even juicier 9/5 with BoyleSports if we combine LUTON TO WIN AND UNDER 3.5 GOALS.
If the Hatters are to win, a low-scoring victory appears the most likely route – of the aforementioned 10 Luton triumphs in their past 15 games, nine have been in matches featuring three goals or fewer.
And while QPR have lost seven times in the past three months, all have been by 1-0, 2-0 or 2-1 scorelines. When the Hoops, without a goal away in six hours of football competitions, lose they don’t get blown away.
One visiting player I do want onside, however, is centre-half Yoann Barbet who, I believe, has been slightly underestimated by Sky Bet in the shots on target market.
The Frenchman has been very active from set-pieces and general play recently, registering 10 shots in his past nine games.
Barbet has scored twice this season and worked the goalkeeper seven times so the 6/1 on YOANN BARBET 1+ SHOTS ON TARGET looks a unit or two too big and is worth a look at small stakes.
Luton v QPR best bets and score prediction
- Luton to win and under 3.5 goals at 9/5 (BoyleSports)
- Yoann Barbet 1+ shots on target at 6/1 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Luton 2-0 QPR (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Odds correct 2230 GMT (10/03/22)
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