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Free betting tips and match preview: Champions League final - PSG v Bayern Munich
The Champions League final sees Bayern Munich take on PSG. Tom Carnduff picks out three best bets with a 22/1 headline tip.
Recommended bets
2pts Bayern Munich to have 19+ total shots at 7/4
1pt Leon Goretzka to score from outside the area at 22/1
1pt Bayern to win and over 3.5 goals in the match at 11/4
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
PSG v Bayern Munich
- Champions League final - 20:00 BST - BT Sport 1
- Match odds: PSG 23/10 | Draw 16/5 | Bayern Munich 10/11
Bayern were our 14/1 outright selection for success at the start of the season, so it may be worth backing the 6/4 on PSG lifting the trophy to create a 'win-win' scenario for the Champions League final.
Even with profit in the bag because of the Bundesliga side's involvement here and Leipzig reaching the latter stages of the competition, there is little desire to back PSG for success given Bayern's dominance under Hansi Flick's guidance.
There was little doubt as to the quality of this team but Niko Kovac couldn't find a way to unlock their potential. In stepped Flick, the man who had established himself as an assistant, to take them to the next level.
This is the next great Bayern team. The depth in every position is quite frankly frightening and they've brushed aside everything in their way to reach this stage. Regardless of Barcelona's current position, winning 8-2 against a fellow giant of world football is a phenomenal achievement.
And yet we saw the other side of this team in the semi-final against Lyon. They didn't look at their best, attacking moves weren't flowing as regularly as we are used to and, in all honesty, Lyon should have scored a couple themselves. It was a 6/10 performance from Bayern, they still won 3-0.
They may well meet their match in PSG. Little more needs to be said on their attack, with Neymar and Kylian Mbappe two stars of the game and both continuing to contribute in significant ways. Going forward will be little issue for either team, the defence is where this game will be won and lost.
Bayern play with such a high line. They look to dominate possession and break forward with pace. With better finishing, and perhaps better fortunes, Lyon would have exploited that with goals in the first-half of their recent meeting.
Barcelona managed to beat that defence too and netted two goals because of it. PSG's defence is far from perfect either; the truth is that neither of these teams faces a significant enough threat in their domestic leagues to worry about how their defensive line will cope.
PSG saw some criticism thrown their way in the quarter-final against Atalanta because they were happy to sit a bit deeper and look to Neymar and Mbappe as their counter-attacking options. Had Neymar converted those early opportunities, it would have been considered a tactical masterstroke. Instead, it was greeted with a largely negative response.
Finals tend to be cagey affairs with nerves on display but there's every chance this contest goes the other way with goals a real possibility. Bayern's near even money price for victory in normal time looks tempting enough but going big on a win with over 3.5 goals in the match produces a much better 11/4 across the board.
It could be a case here that clever tactics from Thomas Tuchel wins PSG the trophy. Rather than look to that quality up front, they hold a more defensive mindset and again look to exploit Bayern's high line. They've certainly got the pace, and the pass accuracy, to do so.
But then there is the possibility of allowing Bayern, and their incredibly talented forwards, plenty of opportunities to find the net. The issue with facing Bayern is that you may well score but there's a good chance they will net three times as many.
A slight tweak in this sense would mean that Bayern continue to enjoy a high shot count. The average of 22.9 per 90 minutes is the best total shots rate out of any team involved in the Champions League this season and it's reflected in the fact they've scored at least three goals in nine of their ten European outings.
We could expect them to exceed their average of eight shots against per game but the 7/4 available with Sky Bet for Bayern to have 19 or more total shots here is worth backing. They achieved that target in the games against Barcelona and Lyon in the previous rounds. Leipzig's 14 shots against PSG, coming in what was a poor performance by their standards, gives further hope that this selection will come in.
The one issue when it comes to two teams with such talent throughout is how short the goalscorer odds become. Robert Lewandowski (or Lewangoalski if you ask Thomas Muller) is odds-on while the supporting cast fail to go above 5/2.
However, the 22/1 on Leon Goretzka netting from outside the area is the bold play for the final but a bet that looks somewhat overpriced based on what we've seen in recent showings.
Goretzka has found a home in a deeper midfield position, usually alongside Joshua Kimmich but it's Thiago throughout the Champions League campaign with Kimmich asked to fill in at right-back. Despite a more defensive role, the Germany international is seeing efforts on goal.
His last two appearances saw a combined nine total shots. Four of those came from outside the area against Lyon, of which two looked a real threat but his own man got in the way, while there were also two from range in the hammering of Barcelona. It's worth noting that a scrambling Lyon keeper kept him from scoring in their semi-final.
We have seen Goretzka score goals by arriving late into the box and converting from set-pieces and crosses but that is restricted when he is in the current midfield set-up. He's starting to adapt his attacking chances to that, which means more shots coming from distance.
The midfield battle could actually be key in this game and teams, such as Tottenham, have learned the hard way when you allow this Bayern team the space in the middle to attack. Goretzka will see a few shots on goal again in this game, especially if PSG sit a bit deeper, and there's every chance he can add to the eight goals on his tally this season.
There's genuine excitement around this final and it's more than justified. The Champions League final is always a treat, but the quality of the two teams involved should make this one a special occasion.
The one-legged knockout games have actually been better but there's little point in hoping that they will stay, UEFA are almost certainly going to go back to the previous format next season.
Hansi's flicked the switch with this Bayern team, it's remarkable the transformation since the Kovac days at the start of the season where they were good but nowhere near this level.
They are a team ready for European glory once again and, just as the rest of the Bundesliga was hoping that they may be able to catch them, Bayern have kicked on and could well be regular features in the latter stages of this competition for years to come.
They're an experienced team who knows what it takes to win. Bayern are the best team in Europe and will be determined to have a trophy which backs that up.
Score prediction: PSG 1-3 Bayern Munich (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Best bet: Bayern Munich to have 19+ total shots at 7/4
Best bet: Leon Goretzka to score from outside the area at 22/1
Best bet: Bayern to win and over 3.5 goals in the match at 11/4
Opta facts
- Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain have met eight times previously, all in the UEFA Champions League group stages – Paris SG have won five of those matches, with Bayern winning the other three, including the most recent game in December 2017.
- This is Paris Saint-Germain’s first ever European Cup/Champions League final, becoming the 41st team to reach the showpiece final. The last six teams competing in their first final have all lost, with the last first-time winner being Borussia Dortmund in 1997 against Juventus.
- Bayern Munich have reached their 11th European Cup/Champions League final, with only Real Madrid playing in more (16). They currently have five titles, the fourth-best tally behind Real Madrid (13), AC Milan (7) and Liverpool (6).
- Paris Saint-Germain have reached only their third major UEFA final, previously doing so in the 1995/96 and 1996/97 Cup Winners’ Cup, winning the former 1-0 against SK Rapid Wien and losing the latter 1-0 to Barcelona.
- Bayern Munich have scored 42 goals in 10 games in this season’s UEFA Champions League, with only Barcelona in 1999/2000 scoring more in a single campaign (45), although they played 16 games that season.
- Paris SG are the fifth French side to reach a European Cup/Champions League final, and first since Monaco in 2004. Only one of the previous four has been victorious, with Marseille winning 1-0 against AC Milan in the 1993 Champions League final.
- Bayern Munich have won their last 10 UEFA Champions League matches and are looking to become the first team in the history of the European Cup/Champions League to win 11 in a row – the previous two instances of a team winning 10 in a row were Bayern themselves (April-November 2013) and Real Madrid (April 2014-Feb 2015).
- In 19 UEFA Champions League appearances for Paris SG, Neymar has been directly involved in 23 goals, scoring 14 times and assisting nine. Neymar scored in the 2015 final for Barcelona and could become only the third player to score in the final for two different teams, along with Cristiano Ronaldo (Man Utd & Real Madrid) and Mario Mandzukic (Bayern Munich & Juventus).
- Bayern striker Robert Lewandowski has scored in nine consecutive UEFA Champions League matches, with only Cristiano Ronaldo netting in more successive games in the history of the European Cup/Champions League (11 in a row between June 2017 and April 2018).
- Bayern manager Hans-Dieter Flick is only the sixth person to play for and manage the same side in a European Cup/Champions League final, after Miguel Muñoz (Real Madrid), Vicente del Bosque (Real Madrid), Carlo Ancelotti (AC Milan), Pep Guardiola (Barcelona) and Zinedine Zidane (Real Madrid); Flick played in Bayern’s 2-1 defeat in the 1987 final to FC Porto, and could be the first of the six to lose as both a player and manager at a single club.
- Paris SG manager Thomas Tuchel has lost more matches in his managerial career against Bayern Munich than any other team (9).
- Bayern’s Robert Lewandowski has scored 15 UEFA Champions League goals this season, two behind the record set by Cristiano Ronaldo in 2013/14 (17). He (alongside Serge Gnabry) is looking to become the fifth player to score in the group stage, round of 16, quarter-final, semi-final and final in a season, after Diego Milito (Inter, 2009/10), Lionel Messi (Barcelona, 2010/11), Cristiano Ronaldo (Real Madrid, 2013/14) and Sadio Mané (Liverpool, 2017/18).
Odds correct as of 1225 BST on 21/08/20
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