Free football betting tips: Brighton v West Brom - Premier League preview & best bets

Recommended bets

1pt Brighton to win and under 3.5 total goals at 6/4

1pt Draw HT/Brighton FT at 4/1

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Brighton v West Brom

• 17:30 on Sky Sports Box Office
• Match odds: Home 4/5 | Draw 3/1 | Away 15/4

Just one place separates Brighton and the Baggies after five games of the Premier League season but the Seagulls have reason to be far more pleased with their start than Monday’s visitors to The Amex.

Graham Potter’s side are unfortunate not to have more than four points to their name, with the 3-2 home defeat to Manchester United – when Brighton hit the woodwork more times than Woody Woodpecker (five, by the way) – a chief case in point.

The fixtures computer gave West Brom an equally tough beginning to life back in the top-flight – like Brighton, they have faced Everton away and Chelsea at home, producing their best display in the latter but still letting a 3-0 lead slip to draw 3-3.

However, they have subsequently underwhelmed against both Southampton, losing 2-0 at St Mary’s, and Burnley as the two sides provided the 2020-21 season’s first goalless draw last Monday.

After conceding 11 goals in their opening three fixtures – all defeats – the Baggies have noticeably tightened up, albeit helped by a drop in quality of the opposition, and they now face another team Slaven Bilic will know they need to take points from if their Premier League return is not to be brief.

But that caution has come at a price, with Albion failing to trouble the scoresheet for more than 200 minutes since Kyle Bartley put them three to the good against Chelsea.

While Brighton win to nil tempts at a best-priced 2/1, it's a risky play expecting a West Brom attack featuring the likes of Grady Diangana and Matheus Pereira to continue to fire blanks.

The hosts have the absence of skipper Lewis Dunk – suspended for an awful challenge on Crystal Palace’s Gary Cahill – to cope with but, with Ben White and Adam Webster around, the Seagulls are not as defensively reliant on their captain as they once were.

Nonetheless, there is more value in backing the draw/Brighton half-time/full-time double at 19/5 in the belief the comparatively free-scoring Seagulls will eventually break the visitors down. Of the 13 goals West Brom have conceded this term, 10 have come in the second half, when pressure from superior sides has finally told.

It’s also worth noting that four of Brighton’s nine league goals this campaign have come in the final 10 minutes of games – a promising statistic should they need a late goal, with last weekend’s stoppage-time equaliser at Crystal Palace a prime example.

While West Brom have frustrated Chelsea and Leicester for long spells, when the wheels come off they tend to do so spectacularly which is why I’m tiptoeing around under 2.5 goals and taking the extra goal's security - Brighton/under 3.5 goals at 6/4 is still a healthy price.

Turning our attention to the goalscorer markets, Neal Maupay is the Seagulls’ leading marksman with four goals in five games and although I fancy the Frenchman to find the net again, helped by the fact he has already scored two penalties this term, he is a fraction above evens to score anytime. If you can't help yourself but back him, his 7/2 odds as first goalscorer are more appealing.

Just as a final thought, I wouldn’t put anyone off a flutter on a sending-off in the match at 9/2 either.

In the collective 10 games these two sides have played this season, there have been three red cards – two for Brighton, with Yves Bissouma and Dunk receiving late dismissals against Newcastle and Palace respectively, while West Brom’s Kieran Gibbs was sent off in the 5-2 loss at Everton.

Score prediction: Brighton 2-0 West Bromwich Albion (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)

Best bets:

• Brighton to win and under 3.5 total goals
• Draw HT/Brighton FT

Odds correct on 1405 BST on 23/10/20

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