As we tick over to another month in a stacked football schedule and look to derive punting pointers from the recent matches, the curtain-raiser from the Premier League's latest round of fixtures is a solid place to start.
Goals to flow in games involving high-flying Fulham?
Fulham remain sixth in the table after a 1-1 draw with Wolves, a match which followed a familiar pattern to Marco Silva's side's recent matches by falling under 2.5 goals and containing fewer scoring opportunities than previously (xG: FUL 0.83 - 0.73 WOL).
Silva himself stated that he wanted Fulham to be firmer defensively after the World Cup break, understandable considering his team had allowed the most expected goals against in the league prior to that point (32.2 xGA in 15 games).
But improved performances at the back have had a fairly drastic effect on their attacking play.
Across Fulham's last 10 league matches they've scored 12 goals and created an average of just 1.22 expected goals for (xGF) per game, a significant drop after the pause in play.
In turn, pre-match odds for goals in games involving Fulham have tumbled.
Indeed, unders was short against Wolves, but it might be time zig when others are zagging soon. After all, those 10 matches have still had an average of 2.62 xG per game, despite the 1.70 actual goals average.
A mixture of the Cottagers being brought back down to Earth, the return of Aleksandar Mitrović and a number of other factors could see Silva's side revert to type, which would make the odds for goals in Fulham games far too high.
Bowen bounce is coming
Skirting the tenuous Hull City link between Silva and my next pointer, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Jarrod Bowen have a productive end to the season.
After a stellar 2021/22 campaign, Bowen's goal output has been disappointing this term, scoring only four goals in the Premier League thus far, including one from the penalty spot.
His three non-penalty league goals have come from a total of 6.46 xG, a relative shock given Bowen should be regarded as a competent finisher.
Bowen is still extensively important in a West Ham's attack that has struggled this season, but there were very positive signs in the 4-0 win over Nottingham Forest at the weekend, where Bowen hit the post from a frequented spot.
Like our own winter, Bowen's cold spell should snap fairly soon.
Forward-thinking Leeds full-backs
With the added caveat that Leeds played a Southampton side that look destined for the drop, an interesting part of their 1-0 win over the Saints was Javi Gracia's use of his full-backs.
Both Junior Firpo and Luke Ayling were given the green light to move past the forward players and found themselves in areas to, predominantly, create chances.
Firpo grabbed the winner, but it might be worth keeping an eye on the odds for Leeds' full-backs to record an assist in their upcoming fixtures.
If that is how Gracia is choosing to use personnel in that position, it's at least worth checking the prices.
Learn from Liverpool lauding
A public service announcement at this point, but a reminder that Liverpool remain one of the worst defensive units in recent memory.
Clean sheets from the Reds in 2023 have all come with the incessant need for a Liverpool player or staff member to immediately question why people think they're a poor team at the back, despite looking defensively inept in the very game they 'held' their opposition goalless in.
Whether they actually believe it or they are simply trying to convince themselves, any notion that Liverpool have fixed the problem should be ignored.
Three more big chances were shipped to a Crystal Palace side that are struggling to test even the most average of defences, making it a huge 68 big chances allowed in 24 Premier League games for Jürgen Klopp's men this season, conceding 0.17 xG per shot on average.
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