Football betting tips: Boxing Day
2pts Liverpool (-2 handicap) at 4/5 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
1.5pts Liverpool 25+ total shots at 11/8 (Sky Bet)
1pts Mohamed Salah 1+ assists at 7/5 (William Hill)
1pt Trent Alexander-Arnold 1+ assists at 9/4 (SpreadEx, Sporting Index)
BuildABet @ 30/1
- Liverpool -2 goal handicap
- Mohamed Salah 1+ assists
- Trent Alexander-Arnold 1+ assists
- Liverpool 25+ total shots
- Victor Kristiansen to be carded
It's a wonderful life being a Liverpool supporter this season.
Winning at Tottenham is one thing, scoring six goals to open a four-point gap at the top of the Premier League table (with a game in a hand) is another.
Meanwhile, Leicester's defensive gremlins have finally caught up with them over the past two matches.
Having been fortunate to gain four points from Ruud van Nistelrooy's first two games, Newcastle and Wolves scored a combined seven goals without reply.
It's rare I agree with Jamie Redknapp, but his post-match assertion that Liverpool could quite easily have hit double figures on Sunday was no exaggeration.
Van Nistelrooy is unlikely to be as die hard as Ange Postecoglou when it comes to footballing purity, but that won't save what is a very poor Leicester team.
If Sunday's 6-3 thrashing was The Nightmare Before Christmas for Spurs, Liverpool could soon have us all looking for a name for the sequel.
What are the best bets?
Liverpool's serene transition from Jurgen Klopp to Arne Slot has been stunning.
The Dutchman's record reads W21 D3 L1. That solitary defeat came back in early September with the Reds unbeaten in 21 matches since.
They're averaging the most goals scored per game (2.3) in the Premier League and only twice have they failed to score at least two, and not since October 5.
Only Wolves (40) have conceded more than Leicester (37). Only Southampton and Ipswich have allowed more expected goals against (xGA).
In all competitions, Leicester have conceded at least three times on eight occasions, with half those instances seeing teams score at least four.
With LIVERPOOL 1/16 to win and over 3.5 goals being generally 8/15, those angles look closed off.
What isn't is taking the home side on the -2 HANDICAP at 4/5 with Betfair or Paddy Power, which feels like a formality.
Likewise backing LIVERPOOL 25+ SHOTS at 11/8 with Sky Bet looks like a value selection.
In their fortuitous 3-1 home win over West Ham in Van Nistelrooy's opening game, Leicester conceded a Premier League record 31 shots by an away team.
Away to Newcastle, a match they lost 4-0, they allowed 27. Just prior to their new manager's arrival, and against him nonetheless, Manchester United had 23 attempts in a 5-2 Carabao Cup victory.
It's a game Liverpool will dominate, enough so to far exceed the 18 shots per game Leicester allow their opponents on average.
When a team are as bad defensively as Leicester it's hard to pinpoint a specific thing they are bad at, and we can profit from; we try.
In the six fixtures since Steve Cooper was sacked, Leicester have conceded 14 goals: 10 from within the width of the six-yard box, the other four down their left.
Luckily for them there will only be MOHAMED SALAH and TRENT ALEXANDER-ARNOLD waiting for them at Anfield.
Like the entire Liverpool squad, in a match where lots of goals are expected both players have been cut in painfully short to score. Not so in the ASSISTS market.
SALAH is the first player in Premier League history to reach double figures for both goals and assists by this stage of a season.
He tops the charts for both (15 goals and 11 assists) yet while being odds-on to find the net himself, he is 7/5 to provide 1+ ASSISTS.
ALEXANDER-ARNOLD was finally rewarded for his creativity when Luis Diaz converted on Sunday, but that has't been the case for most of this season.
The 2.37 chances per 90 he is providing for his team-mates is bettered by only Bukayo Saka, Cole Palmer and Bruno Fernandes, yet he has only four assists.
Backing the Liverpool right-back to add 1+ ASSISTS to that tally against arguably the division's worst defence is advised at 9/4.
Team news
Liverpool have no new injury concerns, with Ibrahima Konate and Conor Bradley remaining sidelined.
Diogo Jota is pushing start after returning to fitness, as is Darwin Nunez - both players came off the bench against Tottenham.
Leicester number one Mads Hermansen is still sidelined so former Liverpool man Danny Ward is expected to continue in goal.
Abdul Fatawu, Odsonne Edouard, Wilfred Ndidi and Ricardo Pereira are the other players out injured.
Predicted line-ups
Liverpool: Alisson; Alexander-Arnold, Gomez, Van Dijk, Robertson; Mac Allister, Gravenberch; Salah, Szoboszlai, Gakpo; Jota.
Leicester: Ward; Justin, Coady, Vestergaard, Kristiansen; Skipp, Soumare; Mavididi, El Khannous, Ayew; Vardy.
Match facts
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 12 Premier League home games against Leicester (W10 D2), since losing three in a row between 1997 and 2000.
- Leicester have won just two of their last 12 Premier League games against Liverpool (D1 L9). They’ve had three runs of three consecutive defeats in this run (including a current one), but they’ve not lost four straight league games against the Reds since between 1987 and 1996.
- Liverpool have won their last seven league games played on Boxing Day, the longest current run among any side in England’s top four tiers, and the Reds’ longest ever such run.
- Leicester have won just one of their last 10 Boxing Day league games (D2 L7), with that coming in 2018-19 against eventual champions Manchester City.
- Liverpool are unbeaten in their last 21 matches in all competitions (W18 D3). It’s their longest run without defeat since a streak of 25 between April and November 2021, and their longest within a single season since a run of 24 between January and May 1989.
- Liverpool have conceded eight goals in their last three Premier League games, as many as they had in their first 13 under Arne Slot. However, the Reds have scored at least twice in each of their last nine league games, their longest such run since September-December 2021 (11).
- Leicester lost 4-0 against Newcastle and 3-0 against Wolves in their last two Premier League games. They last lost three consecutive league games by a margin of 3+ goals back in November 1958.
- No current Premier League player has been involved in more goals (6) or provided more assists (4) on Boxing Day than Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah.
- Mohamed Salah has scored 99 goals in 141 home games in the Premier League (2 for Chelsea, 97 for Liverpool). If he scores, he will become the eighth player to score 100+ on home soil in the competition, and fourth-fastest, after Alan Shearer (91 apps), Thierry Henry (113), and Sergio Agüero (125).
- Leicester striker Jamie Vardy has scored eight Premier League goals against Liverpool, with only Andrew Cole (11) and Harry Kane (9) netting more against the Reds in the competition. At the age of 37 years and 350 days, Vardy would also be the oldest player to score a Premier League goal against Liverpool with a goal in this game.
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (23/12/25)
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