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Liverpool vs Aston Villa betting tips, BuildABet, best bets and preview
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Both teams to score 'No' at 29/20 (Betfair)
1pt Trent Alexander-Arnold 2+ total shots at 2/1 (Unibet)
BuildABet @ 35/1
- Liverpool to win
- Both teams to score 'No'
- Ryan Gravenberch card
- Alexander-Arnold 2+ shots
"It's the biggest mistake I witnessed in my career. It's only happened one time in all my life."
Unai Emery was left just a little shocked by Tyrone Mings' decision to pick up a goal kick in his own penalty area against Club Brugge on Wednesday, one that ultimately cost his team their 100% record in this season's Champions League.
Club Brugge are awarded a penalty after Tyrone Mings picks the ball up inside his own area 😳
— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) November 6, 2024
📺 @tntsports & @discoveryplusUK pic.twitter.com/wpAqjMW8pn
A moment of madness.
So mad in fact, that it steered all conversation away from just how poor Aston Villa's overall performance was. Throughout the 90 minutes in Bruges they looked leggy, bereft of ideas, and not especially secure defensively en route to a third successive defeat.
That doesn't bode well for a trip to Anfield, where they'll meet a Liverpool team whose 4-0 thrashing of German champions Bayer Leverkusen made it 14 wins from 16 games under Arne Slot.
What are the best bets?
It's not exactly a stretch to predict that Liverpool are very likely to win, but the prices simply are not there in the 1X2.
I wouldn't say I have great conviction over exactly how this match will finish either, so trying to find a way to combine a home win with over/under goals is fraught with risk, even if there had been any value there.
Villa's late collapse to lose 4-1 at Tottenham last weekend combined with Liverpool's ruthless second-half display against Leverkusen hints at the possibility of a high scoreline, but the inevitability of Emery setting up to frustrate and pick moments on the counter attack makes a low-scoring affair the more likely outcome.
While there was a temptation to back Liverpool win to nil at 2/1 given that eight of their 14 wins have come that way this season, the 29/20 about BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 'NO' is instead advised, which covers that outcome as well as a Villa victory in the same manner and the goalless draw.
This will be Villa's toughest game of the season so far, but we already have a decent sample size of how their matches against better opponents tend to go.
They have faced two of last season's top eight in the Premier League (Arsenal and Manchester United) and played four Champions League group games: BTTS 'No' has landed in all six matches.
Trent to take aim
I just can't quit TRENT ALEXANDER-ARNOLD.
After repeated failed attempts in the assist market, this weekend we're instead backing him to have 2+ TOTAL SHOTS at a best price of 2/1.
The England full-back has taken 21 shots for club and country this season, a number boosted by his role as direct free-kick taker, with only four attempts hitting the target.
The flow of this match should mirror Liverpool's midweek Champions League tie, when Leverkusen sat deep and left space for shots from distance; Alexander-Arnold obliged on four occasions.
He also had two shots against Arsenal a fortnight ago.
Team news
Liverpool have no new injury concerns and are likely to recall defender Andy Robertson at left-back in an otherwise unchanged XI. Alisson, Harvey Elliott, Federico Chiesa and Diogo Jota all remain out.
Aston Villa are likely to recall Pau Torres and Lucas Digne in defence in place of Mings and Ian Maatsen, with it likely Amadou Onana will return in place of Boubacar Kamara. Ross Barkley is their only injury absentee.
Predicted line-ups
Liverpool: Kelleher; Alexander-Arnold, Konate, Van Dijk, Robertson; Mac Allister, Gravenberch; Salah, Jones, Gakpo; Diaz.
Aston Villa: Martinez; Konsa, Carlos, Torres, Digne; Onana, Tielemans; McGinn, Rogers, Ramsey; Watkins.
Match facts
- Having won just one of their six Premier League home games against Aston Villa between 2009 and 2014 (D2 L3), Liverpool have now won five of their last six at Anfield against the Villans (D1).
- Only Manchester United (12) and Chelsea (7) have won more Premier League away games against Liverpool than Aston Villa (6, level with Arsenal).
- Aston Villa have lost 16 of their last 18 Premier League away games against sides starting the day top of the table (D2), including each of the last nine in a row. Indeed, they’ve only won one of their 23 such games, beating Leeds United 2-1 at Elland Road in January 2000.
- Liverpool have conceded the first goal in their last two Premier League games, but avoided defeat in both (2-2 v Arsenal, 2-1 v Brighton). Indeed, their win against Brighton was the 100th time they’ve come from behind to win a Premier League match, the third team to reach this milestone in the competition.
- Both of Aston Villa’s Premier League defeats this season have come against the two north London sides, losing 4-1 against Tottenham last time out. The Villans last lost consecutive league games in May 2023.
- Only Manchester City (32) have faced fewer shots on target than Liverpool in the Premier League this season (34), with the Reds also conceding the fewest goals (6) and having the lowest xG against figure this term (8.1).
- No team has scored more Premier League goals this season from either crosses (6) or set-piece situations (5, excluding penalties) than Aston Villa (level with Arsenal in both cases).
- Liverpool’s Arne Slot has become just the fifth manager to win as many as eight of his first 10 Premier League games in charge, after John Gregory (1998), Guus Hiddink (2009), Carlo Ancelotti (2009) and Ange Postecoglou (2023). Of the previous four, only Postecoglou failed to win his 11th match in the competition.
- No player has been involved in more Premier League goals so far this season than Liverpool’s Mohamed Salah (12 – 7 goals, 5 assists). The Egyptian has also had the most touches in the opposition box this term (96), while of players to have had 20+ shots, no-one has hit a higher percentage of them on target (67% - 20/30).
- Only Erling Haaland (16) has had more big chances than Aston Villa’s Ollie Watkins in the Premier League this season (14). However, Watkins has scored with just four of these, the lowest conversion rate of any of the seven players with 10+ big chances (28.6%).
Odds correct at 1400 GMT (07/11/24)
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