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Liverpool v Wolves tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Liverpool host Wolves knowing only a win will give them a chance of winning the title. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, selecting his best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2.5pts Liverpool to win to nil at 10/11 (Betfair)
So it all comes down to the final day.
Liverpool's destiny is out of their hands, but they know that whatever happens at the Etihad in Manchester City v Aston Villa, a win is a must to have any chance of winning the Premier League.
Infogol's model calculates the Reds have a 17.3% chance of reigning supreme come 6pm on Sunday, with that probability having risen from 4.9% just last week.
It is still unlikely, but it is possible that the unthinkable happens and Liverpool are celebrating a historic domestic treble after this game.
They shouldn't face anything overly scary, either. It should be as routine as they come for Klopp's men.
The German coach rested and rotated heavily in midweek against Southampton, with Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane, Trent Alexander-Arnold or Virgil van Dijk not even in the squad and Luis Diaz, Andy Robertson, Naby Keita and Thiago on the bench.
Expect some if not all of them to start here, not only because this is must-win, but because too long of a rest period could be a negative in the lead up to the Champions League final - just ask Manchester United's 2008/09 team.
The Reds have been simply incredible at Anfield this season, winning 14 of an unbeaten 18, posting an eye-watering underlying process of 2.77 xGF and 0.69 xGA per home game.
Those two figures are both league-leading, meaning that, at home, Liverpool represent the best attacking and defensive team in the land.
What's more, their xGD per home game of +2.08 is the best Infogol has ever seen since data collection began in 2014.
Wolves should be fearful then, especially given their slump, which has gone massively under the radar.
They are winless in six after drawing with bottom side Norwich last time out, and Bruno Lage's side have in fact lost the xG battle in 14 of their last 17 league games.
Across that period, they have averaged 0.99 xGF and 1.80 xGA per game, collecting 0.92 expected points (xP) per game. That is a relegation-worthy process.
Their xGF figure is in fact the worst in the division over that period. Yes, even worse than Norwich's, while only the Canaries have collected fewer xP per game.
They are not in very good shape, particularly heading to face a highly-motivated Liverpool in front of a raucous crowd.
The fact that Wolves are struggling to create decent scoring chances, and that Liverpool boast the best home defensive process in the league, means LIVERPOOL TO WIN TO NIL has to be backed here.
Not only do all the stats point that direction, but the price makes it irresistible - available at 10/11. The same bet is as short as 3/4 in places.
Liverpool are a general 1/5 shot to win this game, so the jump up to 10/11 for them to keep a clean sheet while doing so just looks too big, particularly given the attacking issues Wolves have.
Add to this the fact that this bet has won in 12 of Liverpool's 14 league victories at Anfield this season, and that it has landed in six of the last seven league head-to-heads, and this selection looks an absolute cracker.
Liverpool v Wolves score prediction and best bets
- 2.5pts Liverpool to win to nil at 10/11 (Betfair)
Score prediction: Liverpool 3-0 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct 1545 BST (18/05/22)
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