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Liverpool v Watford tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Jake Pearson previews Watford's trip to Anfield to take on Liverpool, picking out his best bet and score prediction.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Diogo Jota to score anytime at 10/11 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
The first Premier League fixture following the international break is a crucial one at both ends of the table, Liverpool knowing that a win would take them temporarily top of the league – something almost unthinkable given they were at one point 14 points adrift of Manchester City – while three points for Watford would see them leapfrog Everton and climb out of the relegation zone.
One of those outcomes is far more likely than the other, however, with the home side holding a 92% chance of victory if the bookies are to be believe, and with the form that the Reds were in leading up to the international break, it is difficult to disagree.
Liverpool’s 2-0 victory over Arsenal prior to the break in play was their ninth successive win in the Premier League, while their only defeat across their last 19 matches in all competitions came in the second leg of their Champions League round of 16 fixture against Inter Milan – a tie they won on aggregate.
Watford, meanwhile, have struggled for results all season, and even the appointment of the tried-and-tested Roy Hodgson hasn’t had its desired effect.
Defensive solidity has been Watford’s problem all season, conceding the third most goals in the division, and even under the cautious Hodgson the defensive frailties have remained – they have conceded three or more in three of their last five matches.
Given Liverpool’s relentlessness when it comes to scoring goals – they are the league’s top scorers with 75 scored, while their expected goals process is also the best in the league in terms of chance creation – expect Jurgen Klopp’s men to really put Watford to the sword here.
Considering the reverse fixture finished 5-0 in Liverpool’s favour, looking to back a home player to find the back of the net appeals as the best betting avenue into this match.
With the plethora of attacking talent Liverpool have at their disposal, particularly after the shrewd signing of Luis Diaz, it is difficult to know which trio of attackers Klopp will select on any given matchday.
With all of Diaz, Mohamed Salah, Sadio Mane, Roberto Firmino and Diogo Jota having been on international duty as well, there are no clues to be found there in terms of who could be the most well rested.
All five options have their own merits and are worthy of consideration, but at the prices available, backing DIOGO JOTA TO SCORE ANYTIME at 10/11 makes the most appeal.
The Portuguese marksman is Liverpool’s second highest scorer in the Premier League this season, netting 13 times from 26 appearances (six as a substitute), and has scored in the Reds’ last two successive matches in all competitions.
Ultimately, though, it is the close to even money price that attracts the attention far more than the statistics.
Most firms have Jota priced up heavy odds-on to find the back of the net, with one bookmaker going as short as 4/9.
Question marks over selection can certainly influence the prices in player markets, but the vast difference in opinion here certainly piques the interest, and when considering the next best price available about the Portuguese striker netting at any point in this match is 8/11 (1.73), then the 10/11 (1.91) on offer with Paddy Power and Betfair Sportsbook looks too large to pass up.
Liverpool v Watford best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Diogo Jota to score anytime at 10/11 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
Score prediction: Liverpool 4-0 Watford (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 1410 GMT (29/03/21)
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