Liverpool continue their pursuit of a top-four finish against Southampton on Saturday evening, and Jake Pearson has previewed the match, picking out his best bets and score prediction.
Premier League betting tips: Liverpool v Southampton
1pt Both Teams To Score at 19/20 (SportNation)
1pt Southampton or Draw on the Double Chance market at 14/5 (SportNation)
Liverpool and Southampton both come into this game out of sorts, the home side without a win in their last three matches in all competitions, while the visitors are winless in four, including three defeats.
Anything other than a win for Liverpool would seriously damage their chances of a top-four finish, while all three points for the Saints would guarantee them a spot in next season’s Premier League.
Liverpool’s tribulations at Anfield this season have been no secret, losing six times on home turf, and recent performances suggest it is an issue Jurgen Klopp has yet to fix.
Their 1-1 draw at home to Newcastle last weekend was the perfect example, Mohamed Salah putting the Reds a goal up early on, but Klopp’s men unable to convert their chances and ultimately paying the ultimate price, Joe Willock grabbing a late equaliser after Callum Wilson had a goal controversially ruled out for handball.
Liverpool’s inability to convert gilt-edged chances at Anfield is one of the major reasons for their below par home form, with their expected goals numbers suggesting they should have found the net at least seven more times at home this term.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Admittedly, Southampton have been poor on the road this season, in fact, they are currently on a nine-game losing streak away from home in the Premier League, but they showed plenty of grit and determination to draw 1-1 at home to Leicester last week, forced to play 80 minutes of the match after Jan Vestergaard’s early sending off, which has since been rescinded.
This Southampton side still have plenty about them; let’s not forget, they led the way in the Premier League back in November, not to mention the fact they beat Liverpool 1-0 earlier in the season, quite an achievement at that time given it was just the Reds’ second defeat of the campaign.
Value in opposing the Reds
Liverpool are rightly favourites for this match, but should their price be as short as it currently is?
The Infogol model gives Liverpool a 64% chance of winning this fixture, while a separate model operating on historical probabilities gives the Reds a 69% chance.
While that means there is still a big chance that Liverpool do come away with all three points, it means there is value in opposing them, with SOUTHAMPTON OR DRAW on the double chance market currently priced up at 11/4 (26%), which is a far bigger price than either model suggests it should be.
While it is worth opposing Liverpool in this match from a value perspective, there also appears to be a little value in siding with BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE at a standout price of 19/20.
No team has a higher match goal average (team goals + opponent goals) than Southampton this season, while only three teams have a higher Both Teams To Score percentage than Liverpool, not to mention the fact that only five teams in the division have kept less clean sheets than these two sides this term.
Liverpool v Southampton best bets and score prediction
- 1pt Both Teams To Score at 19/20 (SportNation)
- 1pt Southampton or Draw on the Double Chance market at 14/5 (SportNation)
Score prediction: Liverpool 1-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct 1440 BST (06/05/21)
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