Liverpool v Real Madrid tips: Champions League final best bets and preview

By Jake Osgathorpe

Football

Sat May 28, 2022 · 3y ago

Liverpool and Real Madrid do battle for the Champions League in Paris on Saturday, and Jake Osgathorpe has previewed the game, selecting his best bets.

Football betting tips: Champions League final

2pts Liverpool to win in 90 minutes at 11/10 (General)

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What a mouth-watering prospect we have waiting for us on Saturday night.

Two of the most decorated clubs in European football history going head-to-head, and two of the biggest named teams in world football meeting in Paris.

It should be one hell of a spectacle, with so much talent on show and two fantastic coaches in the dugout, but one team looks superior in my eyes: LIVERPOOL.

Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Saturday

TV channel: BT Sport 1

Liverpool 21/20 | Draw 13/5 | Real Madrid 12/5

LIVERPOOL WIN: Given Man City went off at evens away to Real in the semis, the Reds' price on neutral ground looks good value.
LIVERPOOL MOST CORNERS: The Reds have taken a Champions League-high 86 corners this season - 33 more than Real.
MADRID MOST BOOKING POINTS: Real have collected a Champions League high 26 yellow cards this season - 12 more than Liverpool.

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Granted, Real Madrid have had a tricky route to the final, playing Ligue 1 champions PSG, current Champions League holders Chelsea and Premier League champions Manchester City, but they have been incredibly fortunate to get this far.

Carlo Ancelotti's side have lost the two-legged xG in all three ties, highlighting that they conceded the better chances in all three, and it is that defensive frailty that I expect to be exploited by a ruthless Liverpool team here.

Throughout their six knockout games, Madrid have allowed a whopping 2.08 xGA per game. That figure has come against arguably three of Europe's best teams, and Liverpool are firmly in that category.

I'd have it between them and Manchester City as to who is the best team on the continent, so if those sides can cause such issues for Real, this Liverpool team will be able to do similar.

After all, Jurgen Klopp's men have averaged 2.11 xGF and 0.96 xGA per UCL game this season.

Now, Liverpool have had an easier route to the final, playing Inter Milan, Benfica and Villarreal in the knockout rounds, but they had the tougher group, having been pitted against the 20/21 La Liga champions Atletico Madrid, newly crowned Serie A champs AC Milan and Portuguese Primeira winners Porto.

The Reds have been excellent in this competition, and even when things got a little hairy in games against Inter Milan and Villarreal, they simply found another gear.

Klopp's men are a chance creating machine, and with the news of Thiago and Fabinho being expected to start in this game, as well as Mohamed Salah, I think they will prove too strong for an exposable Madrid side.

Therefore, backing LIVERPOOL TO WIN IN 90 MINUTES is the selection.

CLICK HERE to back Liverpool to win in 90 minutes with Sky Bet

We can get a best price of 11/10 which I think still represents value. Manchester City - who I put Liverpool on par with - went off as even money favourites away to Real Madrid, meaning on a neutral venue they would have likely been priced at around the 4/5 mark.

That means I would expect the Reds to be at least a shade of odds-on to win this game.

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Madrid have shown a knack in this competition yet again this season, picking their moments to turn things on and off, but in this final they play against a team in Liverpool who are exactly the same.

They have experience in this competition having won it in 2019, and they are capable of going through the gears when they sense blood.

Liverpool's defensive stability, in comparison to Madrid's, is also a massive plus so I'm happy to ride with the English side.