The hottest team in Europe, Napoli, are visiting a Liverpool side reeling from yet another defeat. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, selecting a best bet.
Football betting tips: Champions League
2.5pts Napoli or Draw double chance at 21/20 (General)
0.5pt Napoli -1 handicap at 8/1 (Sky Bet, Coral)
Liverpool are all over the place currently.
They look a far cry from the team who were inches away from a historic quadruple last season. In all honesty, the Reds are performing closer to a mid-table Premier League team than the one we saw fighting on all fronts.
That is a major concern for them moving forward, but in the immediate future, the look an incredibly vulnerable odds-on favourite as they welcome the most in-form team on the continent - Napoli.
The state of play is this; both teams have already qualified for the last 16, but Napoli can secure top spot by avoiding defeat by a four goal margin at Anfield.
If Liverpool are to progress as group winners, a miracle is required, but given that this is Liverpool under the lights at Anfield on a Champions League night, you better believe they will give it a go.
After all, they needed a four goal win against Barcelona in the second leg of the 2019 semi-final and managed to pull that off, but this team is nowhere near the level of that side, with the defence and defensive process currently performing at relegation-worthy levels.
"#LFC have conceded 1.7+ xGA in five of their last six league games, allowing an average of 2.10 xGA pg over that stretch - that's a relegation worthy process."
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) October 29, 2022
"For context, last season's bottom side Norwich allowed 2.14 xGA pg"
✍️@JAKEOZZ https://t.co/meMyK2WQeW pic.twitter.com/CzdZl0l2d0
They have allowed 2.10 xGA per game across their last six league games, and while they have beaten both Rangers (twice) and Ajax in the Champions League during that stretch, Napoli are a completely different proposition.
The Italians are on a 13-game winning run as they head to Anfield, performing at an astounding level both domestically and in Europe.
Luciano Spalletti's side have been statistically the best attacking team in Europe when counting xGF per game from across European and domestic games, racking up a whopping 2.63 per game!
That doesn't bode well for what is a very vulnerable Liverpool team, and the Italians will play with no fear at Anfield.
They could rotate, but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see a full strength team as they aim to continue this incredible winning run, and as such, I just simply can't miss the opportunity to back NAPOLI OR DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE at odds-against.
There is no way the hosts should be odds-on for this game given what they have shown us this season, and as well as Napoli being continent-leading in attack, their defensive process is equally as impressive (0.98 xGA per game).
They are a far better team than what the market is suggesting, and I think too much stock is being placed on the 'Anfield factor' and the nostalgia of how good Liverpool were in previous season's. They are vulnerable, and Jurgen Klopp's tired troops are being over-worked as a result of injuries, lack of squad depth and an intense schedule.
I was going to throw a point on an away win, but I think NAPOLI -1 HANDICAP is worth a small play here.
I do think Napoli to beat Liverpool on Tuesday, and if the hosts continue to defend the way they have been then we could see a wide margin victory, which at 8/1 is worth a small play.
Spalletti's side have covered the -1 handicap in all of their Champions League group games this season (including in the reverse game), and in five of their 10 Serie A wins, meaning this bet has landed in 10 of their 15 wins across all competitions, which is no surprise for such a potent attacking team.
Liverpool don't tend to lose by a wide margin, but whether they rest and rotate or go all-out here, there is no getting away from the fact that they are a very easy team to create chances against currently.
Liverpool v Napoli best bets and score prediction
- 2.5pts Napoli or Draw double chance at 21/20 (General)
- 0.5pt Napoli -1 handicap at 8/1 (Sky Bet, Coral)
Score prediction: Liverpool 1-3 Napoli (Sky Bet odds: 25/1)
Odds correct at 1310 BST (31/10/22)
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