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Liverpool v Man City tips: Premier League best bets and preview
Liverpool look vulnerable. The last thing they need this weekend? A visit of Manchester City. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, selecting his best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2.5pts Manchester City to win at 10/11 (General)
1pt Manchester City to win -1 Handicap at 2/1 (General)
1pt Joe Gomez to be carded at 11/4 (Sky Bet, bet365)
A game that, prior to the start of the season, would have been seen as having an early bearing on the title destination, now has something of a different feel to it.
Champions Manchester City have gone about their business in an expected dominant fashion so far this term, whereas Liverpool have faltered greatly.
The Reds did fall 14 points behind Pep Guardiola's side last season before closing the gap to just one by the end of the campaign, but defeat here takes the current gap to 16, which would take an incredible run of form to close.
Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
TV Channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Liverpool 29/10 | Draw 3/1 | Man City 4/5
These two sides, who were pretty much neck-and-neck last season on actual and underlying numbers, now have a gulf between them.
This current Liverpool team are struggling. They continue to concede early goals which means they have to deviate from their game plan, and ultimately makes them even more gung-ho and therefore vulnerable defensively.
Jurgen Klopp's side have conceded good chances on a regular basis this season, and come into this game on the back of successive league games in which they have allowed 2.0+ xGA.
The last time that happened was during the behind-closed-doors season, where they shipped 3.12 xGA to Manchester City at Anfield in a 4-1 defeat and followed that up with 2.18 xGA in a 3-1 loss at the King Power against Leicester.
I think some parallels can be drawn between that team of two seasons ago and this one. Injuries are mounting, the squad looks tired, defensively they are easily exposed and the team is having to transition.
During that season they went through a period of 14 games in which they lost eight and won just three, now I'm not saying they are going to suffer the same fate and languish in the bottom half for a while, but they are a very opposable team at the minute.
Klopp keeps tinkering with systems as they transition into a slightly different way of playing, but while the 4-2-4 formation we have seen of late has had success against a sorry Rangers team twice, it did see them get exposed by a really good Arsenal team in a game that wasn't as close as the scoreline suggested (xG: ARS 2.66 - 0.75 LIV).
More of the same against the best team in the land, Manchester City, will result in another defeat, and that is the main bet in this preview, a MANCHESTER CITY WIN.
This Liverpool team won't change approach for anyone, they will continue to play attacking football with a high defensive line, but that will be to their detriment against a team who are better all over the pitch.
City have had a soft schedule to start the season, but should this defensively weak Liverpool team be seen as a much tougher game?
Pep's side are unfortunate not to have won all nine league games to date, winning the xG battle convincingly in all nine, shown by the fact that they boast an xGD per game of +1.70 - next best is Arsenal at +1.25.
They are creating big chances at will, and against a Liverpool team who are conceding shots with the highest probability of being scored (0.17 xG per shot) in the Premier League this season, City should have no problems scoring goals.
That, coupled with the injuries to Luis Diaz - arguably Liverpool's most consistent player - and their biggest creative threat Trent Alexander-Arnold, means the chances of the Reds keeping up with City on the scoring front is low.
Add in the fact that City played a day earlier in the Champions League, and that they were afforded the luxury of resting big players (Erling Haaland, Phil Foden and Bernado Silva all started on the bench) due to the state of play in their group whereas Liverpool had to beat Rangers, and an away win makes even more appeal.
I do think this could be a question of how many City win by, so I'm also having a smaller play on MANCHESTER CITY TO WIN -1 HANDICAP, which would provide a winner should the Citizens win by two goals or more.
A few years ago we saw City being efficient in their wins, with a City win + Under 3.5 Goals being a favourite selection of mine, but that is not the case anymore.
This team are going for the throat of their opponents, looking to rack up a score and an emphatic win. They don't feel sorry for any team who falls 1-0 or 2-0 down against them, they go for the kill, which is why I think City won't relent if they get themselves in front at Anfield.
This bet has won in all seven of their league wins this season, and given my strong fancy of an away win, I felt it was worth chancing that they win convincingly on Sunday.
A final bet comes in the cards market, with JOE GOMEZ TO BE CARDED appealing at 11/4.
Gomez will more than likely be playing right back in this game, and will directly up against either Phil Foden and/or Jack Grealish.
Grealish is a defenders worst nightmare given his directness, and he should get space to cause problems if he gets game time, while Phil Foden is in fine form and gave Liverpool's stand in right back last season, James Milner, the absolute run around to the point he was booked early on.
Add to this the fact that Gomez has received six yellow cards in 17 games at right back - including twice in the last week at Arsenal and Rangers - and the price about him finding his way into the referee's book looks solid.
Liverpool v Manchester City best bets and score prediction
- 2.5pts Manchester City to win at 10/11 (General)
- 1pt Manchester City to win -1 Handicap at 2/1 (General)
- 1pt Joe Gomez to be carded at 11/4 (Sky Bet, bet365)
Score prediction: Liverpool 1-4 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 22/1)
Odds correct at 1700 BST (13/10/22)
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