Jake Pearson previews the Champions League second leg between Liverpool and Inter Milan, picking out his best bet and score prediction.
Liverpool came away from the San Siro with a 2-0 lead thanks to late goals from Roberto Firmino and Mohamed Salah, but the game as a whole was relatively even, and Inter are not out of this tie just yet.
The Milan outfit arrive into this fixture on the back of a 5-0 hammering of Serie A’s rock bottom club Salernitana, a significant victory for Simone Inzaghi’s men as it ended a run of five matches without a win in all competitions.
Deeply embroiled in a thrilling title race in Italy, Inter can ill afford another momentum check, but a trip to Anfield is a daunting proposition, particularly with the Reds having won their last 15 matches at home in all competitions – including a Carabao Cup penalty shoot-out victory over Leicester.
Liverpool v Inter (agg: 2-0)
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Tuesday
TV channel: BT Sport 2
Jurgen Klopp’s men were far from their imperious best as they hosted West Ham on Saturday evening, but crucially, they came away with all three points.
Liverpool have been simply sumptuous in attack in recent weeks, generating an astounding 3.09 expected goals for (xGF) per game over their last seven fixtures.
Not only have they scored the most goals in the Premier League this season, they have created the most chances, and at home they are nigh on impossible to stop, creating an average of 3.02 xGF per game on Merseyside – the best home attacking process across Europe’s five major leagues.
As much as Inter should not be underestimated, it is difficult to see the Nerazzurri overcoming a two-goal deficit, but their need to score could open this game up nicely for Liverpool, leaving opportunities for Klopp’s men to pick off the Italians.
No team have averaged more shots on target than Liverpool in the Premier League this term, while in the Champions League group stage, only Bayern and Ajax hit the target on a more regular basis – Liverpool averaging the same amount of shots on target per game as Manchester City despite the disparity in group difficulty.
Liverpool recorded 6+ SHOTS ON TARGET in all but one of their Champions League group stage matches, and a price of 5/6 about them to hit that target again looks extremely tempting.
Inter are defensively a relatively solid team, but they have conceded six across their last six in Serie A, allowing chances equating to more than 1.0 xG in three of their last five, and against the attacking talent that Liverpool poses, do not be surprised in the Anfield outfit rack up the attempts in this fixture.
Liverpool v Inter best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Liverpool 6+ shots on target at 5/6 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-0 Inter (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (07/03/22)
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