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Liverpool v Everton tips: Premier League Super Sunday preview and best bets
Quadruple chasing Liverpool host city rivals - and relegation threatened - Everton on Super Sunday. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, selecting his best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Liverpool to win both halves at 13/10 (William Hill, 888Sports)
1pt Liverpool to win -2 handicap at 6/4 (Betfair)
Jake Pearson jokingly said on this week's football best bets - "Is the Merseyside derby the standout game of the weekend? It's just a really good team playing relegation fodder innit..."
He's bang on. For once I couldn't agree more with my namesake, with this game looking set to be an incredibly one-sided walkover for the title chasing home team.
Everton could well kick-off this game in the relegation zone, with Burnley - who beat Southampton in midweek to move to within a point of the Toffees - playing Wolves earlier on Sunday.
Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Liverpool 1/6 | Draw 13/2 | Everton 14/1
Heading into the weekend, the latest Infogol simulations have Frank Lampard's side at 39.6% for relegation, and they undoubtedly have the tougher schedule of teams around them, starting at Anfield.
It really is a daunting task Everton face on Sunday, with Liverpool arguably the best team in the land currently, and almost definitely the best home team in Europe.
Jurgen Klopp's side are putting up numbers never before seen by Infogol when playing in front of their own fans, with their expected goal difference (xGD) per home game of +2.23 streets clear of the rest of the Premier League this season.
If maintained, Liverpool's 21/22 home process will go down as the best Infogol has seen since data collection began (2014), highlighting their dominance on their own patch.
The current leaders in that stat are Manchester City's 18/19 team (+2.05), and it is the same team that currently hold the record for being the best attacking team at home over a full season (2.81 xGF per home game).
Liverpool are also set to break that marker too, currently operating at 2.92 xGF per home game - an eye watering figure that should have Everton quaking in their boots.
And though the Reds have a Champions League semi-final approaching after this game, even if they do rotate their team, the incredible level of their squad means it's unlikely this process will be affected too much.
So, that's a nice bit of spiel about how good Liverpool are at home, now let's discuss Everton away from home - a real clincher for both of the recommended bets.
The Toffees have accumulated just six points from 15 away games this season, winning once, but have failed to collect a single point away from Goodison Park since Lampard took charge.
They have played five times under the ex-Chelsea man, losing all five by an aggregate of 15-4, averaging 0.97 xGF and 2.56 xGA per game in that time.
That final figure (2.56) should make Everton fans incredibly worried, and should have Liverpool's attack licking their lips.
Everton have allowed that average against Newcastle, Southampton, Tottenham, West Ham and Burnley - none of those teams are anywhere near the level of this Liverpool attack, an attack that could well have a field day.
So, a comfortable Liverpool win is highly likely, and is expected on Sunday, meaning it is down to us to be creative and find smart ways to get them on side.
Mark O'Haire has put up Liverpool to win to nil at even money in his column, which is an excellent bet though has shortened since publishing, meaning I won't go back in on that selection.
Jake Pearson went for a simple Both Teams to Score 'no' on the best bets video at around 20/23 which also looked good, but I quite like the look of LIVERPOOL TO WIN BOTH HALVES, which is a best price of 13/10.
The Reds have been starting very quickly in games recently, as shown by their fifth minute opener against Manchester United, and with Everton not expected to score, the chances of Liverpool winning both halves increases.
The average time of Liverpool's opening goal when playing at home this season is the 32nd minute, so they do tend to net in the first half, while the average time of the first goal Everton concede in away matches is also before half-time (37th minute).
This bet would have won in a huge 10 of Liverpool's 13 home victories this season, and given the data around both teams, the available price seems too big for this bet.
Another selection I am willing to back to smaller stakes is LIVERPOOL TO WIN -2 HANDICAP at 6/4.
As mentioned, a comfortable home win is expected, and the gulf in class between these two sides is likely to be evident. Liverpool's incredible home attacking process, coupled with Everton's shocking away defensive process should make it a long day for the blue side of the city.
I have this down as a 5-0 home win, but this bet would win as long as the Reds win by three clear goals - just as they did in the reverse game at Goodison Park. Six of their 13 home wins have seen this bet land, too.
Liverpool v Everton best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Liverpool to win both halves at 13/10 (William Hill, 888Sports)
- 1pt Liverpool to win -2 handicap at 6/4 (Betfair)
Score prediction: Liverpool 5-0 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Odds correct at 1430 BST (22/04/22)
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