Tom Carnduff looks to build on his recent winning run, including a 7/1 card winner on Saturday, by picking out best bets for Liverpool against Chelsea.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Chelsea to beat Liverpool at 11/5 (Betfair)
1pt Reece James to have 1+ assists at 12/1 (Betfair)
0.5pts Mason Mount to score from outside the area at 20/1 (Betfair, Sky Bet)
Liverpool halted their losing run in the Premier League with a fairly routine 2-0 win over Sheffield United last time out while Chelsea continue their unbeaten streak under Thomas Tuchel with a 0-0 draw against Manchester United.
The Blues remain outside of the top-four but they will hold confidence that they can secure all three points at Anfield.
Only Manchester City have picked up more points (21) than Chelsea (15) during the seven-game period with Tuchel at the helm.
Liverpool's return over the same period has been a much lower nine points - a tally that puts them 14th in the Premier League table.
The Reds' last four at Anfield have all ended in defeat with just one goal coming during that run.
Chelsea's five away games in all competitions during the Tuchel era have returned four victories and one draw - that includes a win over LaLiga leaders Atletico Madrid.
Betfair's 11/5 is the best price you can currently get on a Chelsea win and that is too generous.
Are Chelsea good value to beat Liverpool?
It is a surprise to see CHELSEA above 2/1 across the board for victory with the contrasting form of the two sides. Liverpool have managed just two goals and two points in their last six games at Anfield. Forget the form of champions, it's not even the form of a side looking to finish in the top-half.
Of course, Liverpool will comfortably be a top-ten team by the conclusion of the campaign and there's every chance we see them in the top-four but they face a team who look better under their new head coach.
Tuchel's team are solid and limit chances for their opponent. Liverpool loanee Takumi Minamino remains the only opposition player to score in any of the nine games across all competitions - that coming for Southampton in their 1-1 draw with the Blues.
Even in the three draws under Tuchel, Chelsea have won the Infogol expected goals battle in each game, a statistic that highlights how they saw the better of the chances. The outright prices would have been correct for this contest last season, but Chelsea are the value play given current form.
Reece James is a huge price in the assists market
Looking into the player markets and the one selection that stands out is the huge 12/1 available with Betfair on REECE JAMES getting an assist in this game. We can expect to see him operating in the wing-back role following the mixed performances of Callum Hudson-Odoi in recent weeks.
It also makes sense to have a more defensive-minded player in the mix against this Liverpool attack. However, that doesn't mean that James won't offer anything going forward himself and he looks well-suited to the position in this Tuchel team.
He already has a couple of assists on his tally but his attacking threat and advanced position is best demonstrated in his shots figure. He has featured in six Premier League games under the current head coach, five of which have seen at least one total shot in the game.
We can expect to see James whipping the ball into the box and he will also pose a threat from attacking set-piece situations. He's essentially playing as a winger when Chelsea are on the attack and the 12/1 price for one assist in this game is far too generous against a Liverpool defence still missing key figures.
Mount can hit the target from range
While he is around the 7/2 mark for a goal anytime, we can boost the odds to strike by taking MASON MOUNT TO SCORE FROM OUTSIDE THE AREA at much bigger 20/1 with Betfair and Sky Bet offering that price.
While three of Mount's four goals this season have come from inside the box, one of those was a penalty and the majority of his shots do come from distance. The above Infogol shot map highlights that and the rate hasn't dropped off under Tuchel.
His performances have been good enough to keep his starting place in the two attacking midfield positions behind the striker. That should be Timo Werner in this contest and with runs being made behind the defence, it may open up opportunities for Mount to look to score from range.
The map also demonstrates how he doesn't necessarily have a preferred spot to shoot from, which makes Mount a better option in this market than others. The defence can't exactly close off one area of the pitch to him and there is, of course, the free-kick factor too.
I remain convinced that the Mount scoring from outside the area will come in again this season and this looks like the type of game where it could happen. It may be nervy at times, but it could also be a game with opportunities to break forward with pace. If Mount gets a chance to shoot, there is every chance he will take it.
Liverpool v Chelsea best bets and score prediction
- Chelsea to beat Liverpool at 11/5 (Betfair)
- Reece James to have 1+ assists at 12/1 (Betfair)
- Mason Mount to score from outside the area at 20/1 (Betfair, Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Liverpool 1-2 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 1645 GMT (02/03/21)
Opta facts
- Of all the 15 fixtures between the six ever-present Premier League sides, only Everton vs Manchester United (1) has seen fewer goalless draws than matches between Chelsea and Liverpool (3).
- Liverpool have lost each of their last four Premier League home games, as many as they had in their first 100 at Anfield under manager Jürgen Klopp. The Reds have never lost five consecutive home games in their history, either in the league or all competitions.
- No team has benefitted from more own goals in the Premier League this season than Liverpool (3). The last campaign to see the Reds benefit from more own goals was in 2014-15 (4).
- Chelsea manager Thomas Tuchel is unbeaten in his first nine matches as Blues boss in all competitions (W6 D3), with only José Mourinho (10 games) and Luiz Felipe Scolari (12 games) having longer unbeaten starts as Chelsea managers.
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