Liam Kelly previews Liverpool's hosting of Atlético Madrid in the Champions League, expecting the away side to again cause some problems for the Reds.
Liverpool enter the reverse fixture against Atlético Madrid with a commanding lead in Group B, a lead earned thanks to a 3-2 victory against Wednesday's visitors at the Wanda Metropolitano two weeks ago.
In what was a highly entertaining game, the Reds had to withstand waves of Atléti pressure after going 2-0 up early on, eventually gaining three points despite their opponents drawing level before half-time.
Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Wednesday
TV channel: BT Sport 2
It's unlikely that this fixture will be quite as gung-ho, though, as game state played a huge part in the openness of the match, but Diego Simeone's side can again cause the hosts problems at Anfield.
Atléti recorded 1.94 expected goals (xG) against Liverpool, four of which were big chances. Of course, travelling to Anfield is a stiff task, but Atléti have been a lot more attack-minded recently, so the price for ATLETICO MADRID to have 10+ TOTAL SHOTS looks solid value here.
The visitors have averaged 2.01 expected goals for (xGF) per game across their last six fixtures, which have been tough by anyone's standards, facing AC Milan and Liverpool in the Champions League, as well as Barcelona, Real Sociedad, Levante and Real Betis in La Liga.
Those underlying numbers show just how much more enterprising Atléti have been in the past few weeks, and Liverpool have had some lax defensive performances this season.
Jürgen Klopp's side surrendered a two-goal lead against Brighton at the weekend, dropping two points in the 2-2 draw at Anfield (xG: LIV 1.37 - 1.16 BHA).
It hasn't mattered too often, though, with Liverpool's attack picking up the slack, averaging a staggering 3.08 actual goals and 2.7 xGF per game in their 13 Premier League and Champions League matches.
Liverpool could easily take another lead against Atléti, which could actually help with our selection. If not, the away side are enough of a threat to land the odds anyway, posing a big danger from both set-pieces and open play, even without the suspended Antoine Griezmann.
Add in the midfield problems Liverpool are dealing with at the moment and the 10/11 for Atléti to record 10+ shots is very intriguing.
The Reds may well win the overall war with Simeone's side, but Atléti can help us win this small battle against the bookmakers.
Liverpool v Atlético Madrid best bets and score prediction
- 1.5pts Atlético Madrid 10+ Total Shots at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-1 Atlético Madrid (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 1140 BST (02/11/21)
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