Liverpool look for revenge following the 7-2 defeat to Villa in the reverse fixture, but Liam Kelly thinks it will be difficult for the Reds, especially between Champions League obligations.
Premier League betting tips: Liverpool v Aston Villa
1pt Aston Villa to win at 28/5 (SBK)
Liverpool's heavy defeat to Aston Villa was a long time ago, highlighted by the fact that Virgil van Dijk played in that match-up, but it still lives fresh in the memory.
Jürgen Klopp's side were torn apart in October's reverse fixture, persisting with a self-destructive high defensive line despite conceding a barrage of chances that were duly converted at Villa Park.
FT: #PremierLeague #EPL#AVFC 7 (3.41 xG)#LFC 2 (1.54 xG)
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Tuesday night's loss in Madrid showed that Liverpool's issues at the back remain.
Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Home 8/15 | Draw 10/3 | Away 19/4
Liverpool's defence is still shaky
An impressive 3-0 victory over Arsenal last Sunday, which put the Reds firmly back in the conversation for a top-four finish, may have just papered over cracks, with Liverpool given an easy time of it at the Emirates.
Prior to that match, Liverpool had posted a middling +3.5 expected goal difference (xGD) in 2021, resulting in their 10-match rolling xG trendlines drawing ever closer for this campaign.
What is Expected Goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
That is hardly a sign of a team returning to form, making Tuesday's failures a little more understandable.
Let's not forget that the Reds are on a six-game losing streak at Anfield, too, so it's crazy to see the big prices available to back ASTON VILLA TO WIN this game.
That is where the value lies.
Admittedly, Klopp will be more attuned to the threat Villa pose, but the away side have displayed just how dangerous they can be against last season's Premier League champions.
Aston Villa enter this match on the back of an important come-from-behind win against Fulham, ending a four-game winless run in the league and reigniting their push for Europe.
Understandably, Villa's dip in form has coincided with the absence of talisman Jack Grealish, who played a huge part in the huge reverse fixture win.
At this point, Dean Smith should be ignored when it comes to the timeline return of his injured players, but hopefully Grealish gets a run out at Anfield.
Even without their captain, Villa appear to be far too big a price here, especially given Liverpool's injury problems and likelihood of squad rotation before the visit of Real Madrid on Wednesday.
Liverpool v Aston Villa best bets and score prediction
- Aston Villa to win at 28/5 (SBK)
Score prediction: Liverpool 1-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Odds correct 1200 BST (08/04/21)
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