Liam Kelly introduces new Premier League column — The Kelly Criterion

The name came easy, as did motivation behind the column's formation — to provide information.

Now, I’m acutely aware that pop culture references have a best before date. Indeed, perhaps it would be more fitting to quote from Oppenheimer presently, but the planning for this column has been months in the making and a line from the election night episode of Succession’s final season has stayed with me.

In a typically entertaining exchange between ‘disgusting brothers’ Tom and Cousin Greg, the former likened information to a bottle of fine wine:

“You store it, you hoard it, you save it for a special occasion, and then you smash someone's fucking face in with it.”

It resonated because, essentially, that is the objective of The Kelly Criterion. Whether you use the material to join me in attempting to beat the bookies, as admittedly bourgeoisie pub ammo or something else completely is up to you, dear reader.

As for the information, my analysis will, for the most part, be data-driven.

I have zero interest in engaging with anyone who vehemently derides the value of data in football. From transfers to tactics, prediction to post-match analysis, it has long permeated almost every aspect of the sport.

On that note, I actually will use a line from Oppenheimer:

“It’s a paradox, but it’s both.”

Of course, I’m not using it in reference to quantum physics or whether light is a particle or a wave, but in the ever-annoying football community dispute regarding data and the ‘eye-test’.

At its very core and very creation, data collection in this sport is a systemised eye-test that records almost every important action that happens on the football pitch — an exceptional base from which to add context.

To not use data is to not make the best use of your own ‘eye-test’.

So, here’s to me scouring spreadsheets, reading articles, listening to podcasts and watching more football than any sane person should, all in the name of endeavouring to gain valuable information.

And here’s to storing it, hoarding it, saving it for a special occasion, before figuratively smashing someone’s fucking face in with it.

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