Leicester haven't played a Premier League game for three weeks, as they host Tottenham on Wednesday. Jake Osgathorpe previews the game, providing best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Tottenham to win at 7/5 (Betfair, SpreadEx)
Leicester haven’t played a Premier League game since December 28th, meaning that when this game kicks off on Wednesday, it will have been three weeks since the Foxes last top-flight game.
Their last league game was a 1-0 win over Liverpool, but they were hugely flattered by that result, again conceding an abundance of chances (xG: LEI 0.75 - 2.50 LIV).
That is something we have become accustomed to seeing from Brendan Rodgers' side this term, with only Newcastle (2.05) allowing more xGA per game than Leicester (1.94).
Kick-off time: 19:30 GMT, Wednesday
TV channel: BT Sport 2
Leicester 2/1 | Draw 12/5 | Tottenham 13/10
That isn't reflective of a bad start either, with their most recent league games seeing them at their very worst.
Across their last seven Premier League games, only Newcastle have failed to rack up a minimum of 2.0 xG against Leicester - the Foxes allowing 2.47 xGA per game in that time.
*ALARM BELLS*
They have generated 1.57 xGF per game during that period, which is why they have managed a few decent results, but while they continue in the same manner defensively, they should be taken on.
Enter Tottenham.
Antonio Conte's side haven't played a league game since New Year's Day, and were humbled in the Carabao Cup by Chelsea over two legs, but this challenge will surely have the Italian licking his lips.
That's because Spurs have become somewhat of an attacking juggernaut since Conte's arrival, and even with Heung-min Son missing for this game, they can create plenty of chances should they continue in the same manner.
Conte has overseen eight league games as Tottenham manager, and Spurs have racked up a minimum of 2.0 xG in seven of those, only his first game in charge against Everton did they really struggle in attack.
In that seven game stretch Spurs have averaged 2.49 xGF per game, which should worry a porous Leicester defence.
The fact that Conte has more than doubled Spurs' attacking process already compared to what we saw under Nuno Espirito Santo (1.13 xGF per game) isn't being talked about enough.
Neither is the fact that their added attacking impetus hasn't seen them get worse defensively. They have actually improved in terms of xGA per game.
In eight games under Conte, Spurs have allowed 0.78 xGA per game. They have allowed less than 0.7 xGA in five of those matches, and that is a key recipe for success.
Although it is a small sample size, in Tottenham's three away games under the Italian they have averaged 1.95 xGF and 0.50 xGA per game - that is a title contending level of process if it could be sustained.
Spurs are trending in a really positive direction, and that is all down to one man - Antonio Conte. Their xG process has improved by +2.07 xG per game from Nuno to Conte, which is simply astonishing.
Add that to the fact that Leicester are having monumental, relegation-worthy issues defensively, and backing TOTTENHAM TO WIN appeals greatly.
They should be able to create plenty here, while the signs also suggest that they will be able to keep Leicester quiet.
Leicester v Tottenham score prediction and best bets
- 1.5pts Tottenham to win at 7/5 (Betfair, SpreadEx)
Score prediction: Leicester 1-2 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct 1440 GMT (18/01/22)
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