Saturday's packed day of Premier League action rounds off with Leicester hosting Southampton. Tom Carnduff has a preview and best bet.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt James Ward-Prowse to have 1+ assists in Leicester v Southampton at 10/3
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Leicester v Southampton
- 20:00 GMT on BT Sport 1
- Match odds: Home 3/4 | Draw 11/4 | Away 7/2
A tough task has been made tougher for Southampton after Ralph Hasenhuttl confirmed a few players will be missing for the trip to Leicester. The biggest one being Danny Ings, while Moussa Djenepo, Michael Obafemi and Nathan Tella will also be absent.
They do welcome back Che Adams and Alex McCarthy and did beat Liverpool with players missing. So while it may be a difficult game, it's not one where they are completely out of it. Set-pieces could be crucial considering Leicester's continued struggles at defending them - only Leeds have conceded more from these situations.
Southampton are joint-top when it comes to set-piece goals in the Premier League. Only Everton can match their nine and that is largely down to the presence of James Ward-Prowse - Ings' winner against Liverpool came as a result of a free-kick.
Ward-Prowse can land a ball on any target. All four of his assists this season have come from either free-kicks and corners and, given Leicester's defensive showings in these situations, there's a great chance he will grab assist number five in Saturday's late kick-off.
It's 10/3 that Ward-Prowse gets an assist in this game, which looks good value considering the circumstances and what the numbers say. It's clearly a problem area while Southampton have shown they can still pose an attacking set-piece threat without Jannik Vestergaard.
A potential goalscorer to mention if Southampton are to strike from a set-piece is Jan Bednarek. The Saints defender has struggled for shots in recent weeks but sits second to Vestergaard in average aerial duels won among Southampton players this season (2.5).
Betfair and Paddy Power provide the best price for a Bednarek goal at 25/1 while the first goal is a huge 85/1 with Sporting Index, although there is 66/1 available with the bookmakers previously mentioned. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Bednarek grab his second of the campaign here.
But with those odds on a Ward-Prowse assist, it's better to play it slightly safer and take the 10/3 on the midfielder getting a helper. It's a game where the outright result is one to avoid, although the 11/4 on a draw is tempting. Sticking with Ward-Prowse is where the best bet can be found.
Score prediction: Leicester 1-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Leicester v Southampton best bets
Opta facts
- Leicester have lost their last two home Premier League matches against Southampton, one more than they did in their first 12 home games against Saints in the competition (W7 D4).
- Southampton are unbeaten in their last four away top-flight matches against Leicester (W2 D2), winning their last two at the King Power Stadium.
- The away team has won the last four Premier League matches between Leicester and Southampton, with the last home win in this fixture back in January 2017 (3-0 Saints). The last Premier League fixture to see five consecutive away wins was Crystal Palace vs Liverpool between May 2015 and April 2017.
- Just 31% of Leicester’s Premier League points this season have been won in home games, the lowest ratio in the division. The Foxes have lost four of their eight home league games so far this term (W3 D1).
- Leicester manager Brendan Rodgers has lost five of his last nine home league matches (W3 D1), as many as he suffered in his previous 77 games (W57 D15) spanning spells at Liverpool, Celtic and the Foxes. Having lost four home league games this season, Rodgers has only lost five in a season once previously, with Reading in the Championship in 2009/10.
Odds correct at 1700 GMT (14/01/21)
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