Football betting tips: Europa League
2pts Over 2.5 goals at 4/5 (bet365)
Leicester v Slavia Prague
- 20:00 GMT on BT Sport ESPN
- Match odds: Home 4/7 | Draw 3/1 | Away 9/2
Leicester produced a really professional performance to return home from the Czech Republic with a 0-0 draw last week, navigating a tricky away European tie with consummate professionalism.
They backed that up with another accomplished performance at Aston Villa at the weekend, beating Dean Smith’s side 2-1 thanks to first-half goals from James Maddison and Harvey Barnes.
That win means the Foxes are now unbeaten in six in all competitions, and Brendan Rodgers' side are still competing on three fronts, with the FA Cup, Europa League, and even perhaps the Premier League all still within the realms of possibility.
Progression to the last 16 would be a great achievement, and something that most fans, as well as bookmakers, will be expecting to happen.
Slavia Prague are by no means going to lie down and die though, and Leicester will have to work extremely hard to get through.
Slavia currently hold an eight-point lead at the top of the Czech First League and are yet to lose a match domestically, while their Europa League campaign up to this point has also been impressive, finishing level on points with Bayer Leverkusen in Group C, just pipped to top spot on goal difference.
If Leicester were happy to emerge from Prague unscathed, then Slavia may in fact feel slightly aggrieved at the result, coming out on top in the expected goals battle (xG scoreline: Slavia Prague 1.09 – 0.43 Leicester).
- Expected goals process is the rate at which teams create and concede chances
That result may have skewed the market for this match somewhat, with plenty of bookmakers predicting a similarly cautious affair, but that is not really in the DNA of either side, and it is probably worth viewing the first leg as the exception, not the rule.
Slavia, as may be expected, have scored more goals than any other team in the Czech top-flight, but even by their lofty standards, their 58 goals is impressive, already equaling the total number they scored last season.
Admittedly, the Czech league may not be the pinnacle, but Slavia have not looked out of their comfort zone in Europe, scoring 11 times in six matches, with games involving the Czech side in the group stage averaging 3.5 goals.
Leicester have undoubtedly improved in attack this season, scoring the fourth-most goals in the Premier League, but their defensive process is just the 10th-best in the league, meaning they are conceding plenty of good quality chances on a consistent basis.
- Defensive process is the rate at which a team conceded chances, according to Expected Goals
Slavia Prague games generally see plenty of goals, with 71% of their Europa League matches bearing witness to three or more this season, while 70% of their domestic games have produced just as many.
Leicester’s numbers are slightly lower, with over 2.5 goals landing in 57% of their European ties, as well as in 56% of their Premier League matches, but that is still higher than the current odds on offer for such an occurrence in this fixture.
All these percentages averaged out gives us a 63.5% probability that there will be OVER 2.5 GOALS scored in this match, which is roughly 4/7 converted into fractional odds, meaning the 4/5 available about such an outcome looks worthy of strong support.
Score prediction: Leicester 2-1 Slavia Prague (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Leicester v Slavia Prague best bets
- Over 2.5 goals at 4/5 (bet365)
Odds correct at 1500 GMT (23/02/21)
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