Tactics expert Alex Keble previews the Boxing Day meeting between Leicester and Manchester United, and explains why it is a tough one to call.
Liverpool’s 7-0 victory over Crystal Palace last weekend has confirmed the champions are likely to retain their crown, and certainly won’t be dropping quite as many points as first thought. That means the only chance of a title challenge this season is if one club rises above the rest; a large chasing pack will wound each other too much to deny Jurgen Klopp's team.
And so Leicester versus Manchester United on Boxing Day is the biggest game of the festive season. Separated by a single point, they are perhaps the only two clubs capable of staying close to Liverpool following a series of poor results for both Chelsea and Tottenham.
Klopp's men will probably win the Premier League at a canter. If they don’t, one of Leicester or Man Utd need to put a run together to surge clear of the rest. Defeat for either would be disastrous, and unfortunately in 2020/21, a season in which a compressed league table has made managers more cautious than ever in the big games, that usually means a dull draw.
Here’s the tactical story of how each side has risen towards the summit of the table, and what we can expect on Boxing Day at the King Power.
Why are Man Utd so much better away from home?
United have benefited the most from the unique challenges of pandemic football, because despite being within touching distance of Liverpool their tactics remain confused and confusing.
Ole Gunnar Solskjaer does not coach this team well enough, which explains why – unless allowed to sit back and counter - they are frequently outplayed, frequently look lost, and frequently appear to have no discernible characteristics as a team.
They have scored the opening goal just three times this season, the joint-lowest in the Premier League alongside West Brom. Solskjaer rarely sets his team up correctly and appears to have only vague tactical ideas concerning attacking pace, which is why most of the time United are simply a collection of individuals, meandering around the pitch and improvising their plans.
But they are very talented individuals, and that helps explain how United have so consistently come from behind to win matches. Whether it’s the luxury of throwing on substitutes like Edinson Cavani and Mason Greenwood, or the benefit of the pandemic making this a particularly exhausting season, the fact that United simply have better players is allowing them to ultimately overpower their opponents.
Solskjaer does deserve credit for his man-management, however, because clearly the players are very motivated to play for him, hence maintaining belief late on in matches. Aside from that, there is really no pattern to their performances.
Even the difference between their home and away form is a red herring, and simply reflects the quality of opposition faced: five of United’s six away games have been against clubs currently outside the top six, whereas they have already played Manchester City, Chelsea, Tottenham, and Arsenal at Old Trafford.
Leicester’s tactics and counter-attacking strengths
Brendan Rodgers has settled on a 3-4-2-1 formation recently, but his – and Leicester’s – biggest strength is their flexibility. They regularly change their approach and system to keep opponents guessing, and while this has brought some mixed results this season the Foxes now boast a squad depth that allows Rodgers to switch things up.
No matter the formation, the general principles are the same: Leicester play a possession-based game with emphasis on sudden tempo changes. The aim is to maximise disruptions both on and off the ball, either by quickly playing vertical passes through the lines or by tackling high up the pitch and taking advantage of the chaos that emerges in the transitions.
Youri Tielemans and James Maddison play crucial roles in receiving the ball on the half-turn to feed Jamie Vardy, while the centre-backs are expected to find the gap for a line-splitting pass whenever possible, creating explosive vertical football that isn’t too dissimilar from how Rodgers’ Liverpool side developed.
The idea is that opponents are most vulnerable when their shape is suddenly disrupted, either by counter-attacking (or counter-pressing) after winning the ball, or by artificially creating a similar scenario by cutting directly through the lines.
In the 3-4-2-1, Rodgers is able to cram more bodies into the central attacking midfield zone - the area of the pitch he finds most fertile.
Rodgers and Solskjaer likely to be cautious
We're unlikely to see too much of explosiveness on Saturday. Leicester have a habit of withdrawing in the big games, conservatively holding a deeper line and happily taking a point; unfortunately for neutrals the same can be said of Solskjaer and his team
Rodgers will be wary of United’s desire to absorb pressure and then counter-attack via Anthony Martial and Marcus Rashford, and so Leicester will be just as cautious as they were in the 2-0 victory over Tottenham last time out. Similarly, Solskjaer will be wary of the threat of Vardy’s runs in behind. Given United don’t like holding too much of the ball, they will also deploy a cautious shape.
This will be anything but a repeat of United’s 6-2 win over Leeds. In that game the hosts ran riot because Leeds emptied out central midfield, which allowed Bruno Fernandes to dominate, but on Boxing Day Leicester’s Wilfried Ndidi and Tielemans will prowl this area.
Having successfully shepherded Harry Kane, they ought to keep United’s attackers quiet.
Man Utd’s set-piece strength / Vardy v Lindelof
If we are to see goals in this game, then the most likely source is via Vardy’s runs. The only real mismatch is between the Leicester striker, who tends to isolate the weakest centre-back, and Victor Lindelof, who continues to look occasionally error-prone in the Manchester United defence.
At the other end, United can be hopeful of scoring from set-pieces.
Leicester were beaten twice from corners against Liverpool and once more against Everton. They have conceded more headed goals (six) than anyone else, while Solskjaer’s side sit third in the table for shots taken from dead-ball passes.
The odd corner may settle what will otherwise be a tight and cagey affair.
Odds correct at 19:30 GMT 23/12/20
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