Leicester could go top of the Premier League with victory over Chelsea. Tom Carnduff picks out his best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Draw/Leicester in HT/FT at 34/5
1pt Half-time score to be 0-0 at 9/4
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Leicester v Chelsea
- 20:15 GMT on Sky Sports Main Event
- Match odds: Home 2/1 | Draw 12/5 | Away 13/10
Despite spending a huge amount of money in the last transfer window, Chelsea are well adrift of expectations. At near enough the halfway stage of the season, Frank Lampard's men sit eight points off the top, a gap that will become nine if you factor in a Manchester City win in their game in-hand.
They are six points behind third-placed Leicester. It is testament to the job Brendan Rodgers has done that we see the Foxes in this position and think little of it. Of course, they are recent Premier League champions, but they now feel like regular top-four contenders as opposed to one-off 5000/1 fairytale winners.
Both of these teams have the exact same goals for and against (33:21) but Leicester have been able to convert that into points on a more regular basis. Chelsea narrowly beat Fulham last time out but Scott Parker is right in saying that it could well have been a different result had his side kept eleven men on the pitch for the entire game.
Chelsea haven't travelled well in recent weeks and anything other than three points would have made the questions about Lampard's future grow louder. Prior to their trip to Craven Cottage, they had lost games at Arsenal, Everton and Wolves.
Leicester, meanwhile, have dropped points in home games they would have been expected to win. But losing to Everton and Fulham at the King Power has been balanced out by wins to nil over Brighton and Southampton, and a 2-2 draw with Manchester United over the past couple of months.
They have also lost just one of their last ten in all competitions, with seven of those games ending in a win. That could have easily been eight away at Crystal Palace but they failed to convert a first-half penalty. The Foxes are riding some good momentum at the moment; a direct contrast to Chelsea.
However, it could be a close game, as was the case in the two contests last season. Both of those were level at half-time, and rather than take Leicester at a decent 2/1 price, there is a best price of 34/5 with 6/1 across the board on Draw/Leicester in the HT/FT market.
A feature of Leicester's games is how low-scoring they tend to be in the first-half. Apart from the comfortable 3-0 win over Brighton, under 1.5 goals in the first-half is pretty common and the 9/4 price available on the score to be 0-0 at the break could well come in again.
That was the scoreline in recent contests against Newcastle and Crystal Palace while the same could have happened at Tottenham had Jamie Vardy not scored a penalty deep into first-half added time. They were also drawing at the break during the home game against Manchester United.
A high-scoring first-half hasn't been a characteristic of this Leicester team, and with both teams knowing the importance of three points, it could lead to a tight, nervy game during the opening exchanges.
It's also a game that presents Leicester with the opportunity to top the Premier League table, for 24 hours at least, and while there is still a long way to go in the season, it will serve as a reminder that they are in the title race too.
The hosts look a good price for victory here, but they may have to be patient for the three points.
Score prediction: Leicester 1-0 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Leicester v Chelsea best bets
Opta facts
- Leicester are unbeaten in their last five Premier League meetings with Chelsea, though four of these games have ended level (W1). The Foxes had lost nine of 11 league meetings with the Blues prior to this run (W1 D1).
- Leicester have won four of their last seven Premier League games played on a Tuesday (D2 L1), more than they had in their first 17 such games in the competition (W3 D6 L8).
- Chelsea have lost their last two midweek Premier League games (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday), last losing three such games in a row back in May 2012.
- Leicester are looking to start a calendar year with three consecutive league victories for the first time since 2014, while they last did so as a top-flight side back in 1968.
- Since beating Leeds to go top of the table in December, Chelsea have taken just seven points from their last 21 available in the Premier League (W2 D1 L4), though the Blues did end a run of three straight away defeats with victory at Fulham last time out.
Odds correct at 1345 GMT (18/01/21)
Follow Sporting Life on social - find us on Facebook here or tweet @SportingLifeFC
Related football content
Responsible gambling
We are committed in our support of responsible gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline on 0808 8020 133, or visit begambleaware.org.
Further support and information can be found at GamCare and gamblingtherapy.org.
