Leicester head into this clash on a recovery mission.
They were extremely underwhelming across both Europa League last 32 legs against Slavia Prague, losing to the Czech side 2-0 despite having the home advantage – expected goals: LEI 0.63 – 0.92 SLA.
Those were two toothless displays and, truthfully, although Leicester are third, I’ve failed to be overly convinced by the Foxes in attack this season.
Jamie Vardy has 12 goals from 15.26 xG this campaign, and if that marginal underperformance wasn’t enough to suggest his skill in front of goal is diminishing, half of that tally have actually been penalties.
Their defensive process, averaging 1.32 expected goals against (xGA) is also completely ordinary, and after crashing out of the Europa League, perhaps now is the perfect time to play Leicester.
Visitors Arsenal aren’t exactly the most consistent side but they’re arguably enjoying their best period under Mikel Arteta’s watchful eye so far.
Their dramatic late winner against Benfica is potentially a sliding doors moment in their season and Arteta's reign.
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang scored the winner on that occasion, netting a brace, and his return to form can only be a good omen for the Gunners.
Aubameyang has struggled to hit the lofty heights of seasons past, but he now has a relatively modest eight goals from 7.89 xG in the Premier League this term.
As the old cliché goes, form is temporary, and class is permanent. There’s been glimpses of the old Aubameyang recently, and it seems Arteta is finally coaxing him back to his prolific best.
Overall, Arsenal have created an average of 1.38 expected goals (xGF) per game, which suggests they should be able to fashion some opportunities here against a wounded Leicester side.
It seems inevitable that the hosts will score at some stage. However, I’m confident Arsenal can emerge as the winners, making the 9/2 available about an ARSENAL WIN AND BTTS an appealing bet.
Score prediction: Leicester 1-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Leicester v Arsenal best bets
- Arsenal to win and both teams to score at 9/2 (General)
Odds correct at 1600 GMT (26/02/21)
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