Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Jannik Vestergaard to score a header at 16/1 (Unibet)
0.5pts Patrick Bamford to assist Raphinha and Raphinha to assist Bamford at 80/1 (Sky Bet)
Leeds v Southampton
- 18:00 GMT on Sky Sports Premier League
- Match odds: Home 11/10 | Draw 13/5 | Away 23/10
This fixture gives us the unfamiliar feeling of not having a previous contest to look back on, despite both playing 24 games each so far. Leeds welcome Southampton in their rearranged clash and both will view this as a winnable game as they aim for a top-half finish.
That place in the top-ten will be welcomed differently at both clubs. Leeds, whose primary objective should be survival this season, are just a couple of wins away from securing that while the Saints will be wondering 'what if' of their campaign - Ralph Hasenhuttl's men briefly held top spot at one point in November.
Since that 2-0 victory over Newcastle moved them into first, Southampton's form has been poor. The Premier League table after that Friday night to now would have the Saints sat down in 17th with 14 points from 16 games - a single goal the difference between them and the relegation zone over that period.
The form table over the last ten has them in 19th, with West Brom only worse on goal difference and Leeds will know the importance of a win here, even if their opponents got a draw against Chelsea on Saturday. That is their only point across the last six games.
Leeds were unlucky not to get something away at Wolves having won the Infogol Expected Goals battle by a significant 2.73 to 0.91 and the incredible unlucky goal conceded was the difference between the two sides. Adama Traore's shot from distance struck the post and hit the back of Ilan Meslier, who had performed well throughout, before finding its way into the net.
A similar tally should bring reward here with a figure of 2.60 bringing two goals against Palace. With both having key figures missing in defence, it could well become a high-scoring game and the one bet that really stands out at a huge 80/1 is PATRICK BAMFORD TO ASSIST RAPHINHA AND RAPHINHA TO ASSIST BAMFORD. The duo have become the stars of this Leeds attack.
Bamford's Premier League form has led to shouts for an England call-up and he's shown little issue in adjusting to the step up from the Sky Bet Championship. He has 12 goals and six assists in 24 appearances this season, and, providing he stays fit, he has every chance of reaching 20 goals for the campaign.
Those six assists are interesting. Five of them are from open play (the other being a penalty won against West Ham) while four have been for wingers. 80% of his open play assists this season have been to either Helder Costa, Jack Harrison or Raphinha and he assisted the Brazilian in the recent home game against Everton.
The game before, Raphinha provided the assist for Bamford in the 3-1 win away at Leicester. He is on four goals and five assists in 19 appearances this season, although he was a substitute in three of those. His set-piece delivery is lethal but he can also create from open play and that will only benefit a forward like Bamford.
Raphinha's threat is demonstrated in the fact that defender Liam Cooper posted an xG figure of 1.43 in the loss at Wolves on Friday. According to Infogol, his Expected Goals tally for the entire 2019/20 campaign was 1.76. He should have had at least one last time out, but it does show how lethal Leeds can be with Raphinha on the pitch.
It also moved Raphinha's Expected Assists total up to 5.48 so he should have had more than five on the pitch. Leeds will welcome better players in the seasons to come and Raphinha, provided he's still at the club, should regularly hit double figures in this area. In the short term though, he does have a striker in front of him who is scoring at a good rate.
While Leeds have become a threat at attacking set-pieces, there remains a big issue with defending them. That will create a mismatch in this area with Southampton having James Ward-Prowse and JANNIK VESTERGAARD on the pitch. No team has conceded more than Leeds at set-pieces this season, while only West Ham have scored more than the Saints from these situations.
Only Edinson Cavani and Dominic Calvert-Lewin have scored more headed goals than Vestergaard this season, all three have come via headers from set-pieces. It's also worth remembering how he missed seven league games with a knee injury and has only recently returned.
He struck the bar in the draw with Chelsea last time out while he had two shots in their last away game (defeat at Newcastle). Leeds have conceded to a number of centre-backs this season and they will be worried about Vestergaard's presence in Southampton's attacking situations. Unibet have him at 16/1, while Sky Bet have 14s available, and that looks too generous given the mismatch here.
Leeds may only have a -0.25 head start on the Asian Handicap but it more than doubles your stake with victory here. They look good value to do that based on recent performances and results, but the better prices can be found in the goalscorer market with the styles of play on show.
Score prediction: Leeds 2-1 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Leeds v Southampton best bets
- Jannik Vestergaard to score a header at 16/1 (Unibet)
- Patrick Bamford to assist Raphinha and Raphinha to assist Bamford at 80/1 (Sky Bet)
Odds correct at 1000 GMT (22/02/21)
Opta facts
- This is the first meeting between Leeds and Southampton in any competition since October 2012, when the Whites won a League Cup tie 3-0 at Elland Road under Neil Warnock.
- Southampton have won their last three league games against Leeds, with the most recent being a 1-0 away win in March 2012. Only once have Saints had a longer winning run against Leeds in league football (4 between 1980-1982).
- In the Premier League, Leeds have lost just one of their 12 home games against Southampton (W6 D5), going down 0-1 to a David Hirst goal in February 1998. The Whites have conceded just three goals in these 12 games, keeping nine clean sheets in the process.
- Southampton have won nine of their last 10 Premier League games against promoted sides, with the exception being a goalless draw with Fulham in their last such match.
- Leeds have lost consecutive Premier League games for the fourth time this season, though they’re yet to lose three in a row so far. They last lost three consecutive league games in November 2017.
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