Everton have hit a stumbling block in their bid for Champions League football of late, but Jake Pearson is siding with them to get back on track against Leeds.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1pt Everton to beat Leeds at 9/5 (Betfair)
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Leeds v Everton
- 19:30 GMT on BT Sport 3
- Match odds: Home 7/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 17/10
It took Leeds less than two minutes to draw level after Harvey Barnes had put Leicester a goal to the good at the weekend, and without Jamie Vardy at their disposal, the Foxes succumbed to a 3-1 defeat at the hands of Marcelo Bielsa’s men, a stylish victory rounded off with a lovely counter-attacking goal scored by Jack Harrison.
That was Leeds’ second successive Premier League victory, following their 2-1 defeat of Newcastle last week, but a look into the Expected Goals figures for those two matches suggests that perhaps Bielsa’s side were fortunate to come away with six points.
Newcastle created more, and better opportunities than Leeds last week, while Leicester also had a plethora of chances against the Yorkshire outfit, Leeds losing the xG battle on both occasions.
Creating and scoring chances has not been the issue for Leeds this season, it has been at the other end of the field that Bielsa’s side have struggled. Only West Brom have conceded more goals than Leeds this season, while the Baggies are also the only team to have allowed more chances on their goal.
This all stems from Leeds’ gung-ho style of play, and, admirable as that may be, if you afford a player like James Rodríguez the sort of time and space that Leeds generally do afford players, you can be sure he will punish you.
Everton have by no means been at their best lately however, Carlo Ancelotti’s side looking well below par as they fell to a 2-0 defeat at the hands of Newcastle, a side who were winless in their nine previous Premier League matches, at the weekend.
Poor performances at Goodison Park have been a recurring theme for Everton this season though, the Toffees having already lost four times on their own patch, but away from home it has been a different story. Everton have the fourth best record in the league when on the road, winning six of their nine matches.
Defensive solidity has been at the heart of this, with Ancelotti’s men conceding just nine goals on the road this season – only Manchester City have conceded less.
Similarly to Everton, Leeds have also been poor at home this season, losing four times at Elland Road, the fifth worst home record in the division, meaning this fixture could prove a good opportunity for Everton to bounce back to winning ways.
In his most recent press conference, Carlo Ancelotti was quoted as saying that Everton “have to improve” if they are to fight for Champions League football, but they are only six points outside the top-four, and have two games in hand over many of their rivals.
A victory over Leeds on Wednesday evening would but the Toffees right back in the mix for Champions League football, and that is what we are siding with.
Leeds may be looking to win their third successive Premier League match, a feat they have yet to achieve this season, but they are such an all or nothing side (just two draws all season), and this will be a tough assignment against an Everton team who are very efficient on the road.
The fact that this match up is essentially a home side who underperform at home, against an away side who overperform away, it is surprising to see Leeds priced up as the favourites, and the 9/5 about an Everton win looks a generous price.
Score prediction: Leeds 0-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
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