Leeds host Brentford in the opening Super Sunday offering. Liam Kelly previews the game and has two bets for what might be a fiery match-up.
Football betting tips: Premier League
2pts Over 21.5 total fouls conceded in the match at 3/4 (Unibet)
0.5pts Mathias Jensen to be shown a card at 5/1 (bet365, BoyleSports)
A mini-rivalry that manifested in the Championship, Brentford joined the rather long list of clubs that are irked by Leeds in some way, shape or form.
It should at least make this contest interesting for the neutral.
If that isn't the case, Leeds certainly bring an element of chaos to almost every game they play in. The reverse fixture between these teams is evidence of that, with the Bees running out 5-2 winners at the Brentford Community Stadium (xG: BRE 2.85 - 2.21 LEE).
Leeds were on the right end of a 5-2 scoreline last time out, hammering Cardiff in an FA Cup third round replay, a positive outcome that had frankly been coming for Jesse Marsch's side.
Encouraging Premier League performances against West Ham and Aston Villa only resulted in just one point, leaving Leeds lingering precariously above the relegation places. Again, the theme that infuses their games is chaos.
Kick-off time: 14:00 GMT, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Leeds 13/10 | Draw 13/5 | Brentford 19/10
Brentford, on the other hand, are a much more methodical team, as shown by their recent form and current league position. Sitting eighth in the table after gaining 13 points from a possible 15 in their last five league matches is not to be understated.
Still, it is the prospect of a hotly-contested game rather than the result at Elland Road that intrigues me from a betting perspective.
With Unibet one of the few bookmakers offering markets on fouls, OVER 21.5 TOTAL FOULS CONCEDED makes appeal with them at a price of 3/4.
Leeds commit the highest amount of fouls in the league per 90 minutes (13.2), and while Brentford commit the fewest (8.2) per game, I'm willing to gamble on Thomas Frank's side breaching their average against a team that often invite a somewhat chippy game.
Following a similar path, MATHIAS JENSEN TO BE SHOWN A CARD is a bet that makes sense to small stakes at a price of 5/1.
Behind only Ivan Toney in fouls conceded by Brentford players, it's possible Jensen will be tasked with giving a helping hand to the right-sided defender in dealing Leeds' danger man Willy Gnonto.
Frank undoubtedly needs a solid plan to handle Gnonto, who is in scintillating form at present, so it might be wise to check on his team news before placing a wager.
Leeds v Brentford best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Over 21.5 total fouls conceded in the match at 3/4 (Unibet)
- 0.5pts Mathias Jensen to be shown a card at 5/1 (bet365, BoyleSports)
Score prediction: Leeds 2-2 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 1030 GMT (20/01/23)
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