Football betting tips: Premier League
0.5pts Stuart Dallas and Ahmed Elmohamady both to be carded at 40/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Ahmed Elmohamady to be shown a card at 7/1 (General)
1pt Tyler Roberts to assist 1+ goals at 5/1 (Sky Bet)
Leeds v Aston Villa
- 17:30 GMT on Sky Sports Premier League
- Match odds: Home 6/5 | Draw 13/5 | Away 2/1
Patrick Bamford hit a hat-trick when these two met at Villa Park earlier this season. Leeds had to do it that day without the influential Kalvin Phillips and captain Liam Cooper. Phillips is absent again here, but the lack of Jack Grealish for Villa will also impact their chances of success.
The Villa skipper missed the defeat to Leicester and is reportedly set for a spell of around a month on the sidelines through injury. Fantasy football has been blamed for the leak of that news, but the fact remains that they struggle without him in the team and victory will be difficult here.
Without Grealish in Villa's Sky Bet Championship season in 2018/19, they won just two of their 13 games. When he returned, they went on the lengthy winning run that ultimately led to promotion. We know how important he is and when he isn't there they struggle to find a way to win.
During Villa’s promotion season in 2018/19, they were without Jack Grealish between mid-December and the end of February (absent through injury):
— Tom Carnduff (@TomC_22) February 21, 2021
▪️ Games: 13
▪️ Wins: 2
▪️ Draws: 7
▪️ Defeats: 4 pic.twitter.com/c4UcgIIsFq
The Elland Road pitch is a nightmare to play on and resembles an ice rink more than a football turf. Leeds have found a way to score on it though with six goals in the three games since it was relaid. Two of those games have ended in victory including the Phillips-less 3-0 win over Southampton in midweek.
However, the gamble on a result with both teams missing influential figure provides little appeal, particularly with Leeds as short as 6/5 to win the game. Instead, given the importance they place on wide play, the 7/1 on AHMED ELMOHAMADY being shown a card looks generous.
That's a general price too, so it's available with a few bookmakers. Matty Cash's stint with injury means that Elmohamady should be in the right-back role again on Saturday evening and he was carded while playing there against Leicester last time out.
The switching flank roles of Raphinha and Jack Harrison will be problematic for him. They are two lively wingers who look to beat their man for a cross into the box. Everton saw Mason Holgate booked in their recent trip to Elland Road while Adam Webster, a right-sided centre-back in a three, was also carded for Brighton.
Raphinha forced Gary Cahill into dragging him to the floor in Palace's visit while Tottenham right-back Matt Doherty was sent off for two yellows when they met Leeds in North London for the first game of 2021. Given Elmohamady's lack of regular minutes this season, he could commit a couple of fouls against this Leeds side.
While Peter Bankes hasn't lived up to his strict levels we saw in the Championship during his time in the Premier League, there is value in a small stakes play on STUART DALLAS joining Elmohamady in the referee's book. He is likely to take up a central midfield role if Mateusz Klich is absent through injury and that could lead to fouls.
What is interesting is how Dallas will then come up against John McGinn, Villa's battling midfielder who is the fifth-most fouled player in the Premier League. He sees an average of 2.3 fouls against him per game this season and Dallas committed four fouls in each of the recent games against Arsenal and Leicester - he played centre midfield in both.
While the talk has been around Raphinha and just how good he is in this Leeds side, one player who has been quietly contributing since a return to the starting XI is TYLER ROBERTS. Primarily a striker, he has been playing in a deeper midfield role due to current injuries.
That brought an assist in the win over Southampton while he also claimed the helper on Helder Costa's strike as a second-half substitute in the defeat at Arsenal. Two assists across his last three games have gone somewhat unnoticed but he represents good value at 5/1 to continue that good form here.
For context, Raphinha has one assist across his last five games but finds himself as a much shorter 2/1. He does take Leeds' set-pieces and they should have scored from at least one in recent weeks, but Roberts' recent form makes him a more appealing option here at a significantly better price.
The outright markets provide little appeal and the better value comes in backing DALLAS, ELMOHAMADY and ROBERTS being involved in one way or another across the 90 minutes.
Score prediction: Leeds 1-1 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Leeds v Aston Villa best bets
0.5pts Stuart Dallas and Ahmed Elmohamady both to be carded at 40/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Ahmed Elmohamady to be shown a card at 7/1 (General)
1pt Tyler Roberts to assist 1+ goals at 5/1 (Sky Bet)
Odds correct at 1650 GMT (25/02/21)
Opta facts
- Leeds are looking to complete their first league double over Aston Villa since the 1975-76 campaign, following their 3-0 win at Villa Park earlier this season.
- Aston Villa have won just two of their last 17 away league games against Leeds (D9 L6), with those victories coming in January and December 2000.
- Leeds are looking to win consecutive league games against Aston Villa for the first time since April/August 1995. In the Premier League, the Whites have lost just one of their last eight meetings with the Villans (0-2 in February 2004).
- Leeds’ Patrick Bamford has scored five goals in his three starts in all competitions against Aston Villa, including the first Premier League hat-trick of his career in the reverse fixture earlier this season.
- Aston Villa keeper Emiliano Martínez has a save percentage of 77.4% in the Premier League this season, the highest on record in a single top-flight campaign for the Villans (since 2003-04, min. 10 games). The Argentine has also kept 12 clean sheets this term, with Brad Friedel the last Villa goalkeeper to keep more than 12 in a top-flight season (15 in 2009-10).
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