The highlight of the Sky Bet EFL weekend comes on Sunday as Aston Villa welcome Leeds. Tom Carnduff has three best bets.
Recommended bets
1pt Mateusz Klich to score from outside the area at 22/1
1pt Barry Douglas 2+ total shots at 9/2
1pt Mateusz Klich 3+ Total Shots at 3/1
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Aston Villa v Leeds (Villa Park, 1330 GMT, Sky Sports Main Event)
Arguably the most entertaining encounter of the weekend comes on Sunday as Aston Villa welcome Leeds to Villa Park.
Both sides are in fantastic form at the moment, and if Norwich fail to pick up victory against Blackburn on Saturday, the Whites will have the opportunity to extend their lead at the top of the table to four points at Christmas.
For Leeds, this game does have the feeling of one that could go either way - a result similar to their 4-1 defeat to West Brom or it could turn out like their away triumph at Sheffield United.
A game like this boasts plenty of value in a number of markets, but the stats betting makes for some intriguing prices, especially given the attacking type of game we are expecting.
The first one to assess is Barry Douglas, who I'm backing to have two or more shots in the game. This doesn't require the shots to be on target, just attempts on goal.
It's surprising that Douglas hasn't found the net as a Leeds player yet given the attacking prowess he demonstrated in Wolves' title-winning side last season. He has been contributing in the assists department, with the ability to deliver accurate corners and free-kicks.
Those set-piece situations could provide the goods for us here, with the left-back being one of Leeds' designated free-kick takers. It does feel like he is overdue a goal given the style of football Leeds are playing, but I'd definitely back him to have opportunities to score.
Elsewhere, Mateusz Klich represents good value at 3/1 for three or more shots with the midfielder sitting in second for shots taken in this Leeds side. His 35 is only bettered by striker Kemar Roofe, who has 51.
Leeds will have opportunities on goal and you'd expect Klich to be heavily involved in that sense. Similar to the Douglas bet, we're not hoping these are on target, just attempts towards goal.
The Polish international has five goals and five assists on his tally this season, but hasn't scored since the 2-1 defeat to Blackburn at the back-end of October.
He has come close to hitting the net though in recent weeks and it is only a matter of time before the goals start coming in once again. The general price of 7/2 on him scoring anytime reflect that.
When you analyse the stats though, there is a case to be made for taking the 22/1 on offer for Klich to score from outside the area. 21 of those 35 shots have come from outside the box, with goals from distance against Sheffield Wednesday and Derby.
Klich has already demonstrated an ability to find the net from range. It's worth boosting a 7/2 bet to 22s by adding in the criteria listed before.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-2 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Best bets:
Opta facts
- Aston Villa are unbeaten in their last three matches against Leeds United, drawing twice whilst winning the most recent fixture – 1-0 at Villa Park last season.
- Over the 84 previous league meetings between Aston Villa and Leeds, both sides have won 28 matches each, while also playing out 28 draws.
- No team has scored in more Championship games this season than Leeds United and Aston Villa (21 each).
- Aston Villa are unbeaten in seven games (W4 D3), although they’ve conceded 11 goals in their last five (netted 16 in return).
- Leeds United have won five consecutive league games for the first time since December 2009. The Whites last embarked upon a longer such run during a nine-game streak ending in September 2009.
- Aston Villa striker Tammy Abraham has had a hand in 39 goals in just 57 Championship appearances in his career (35 goals, 4 assists), netting 12 and assisting one this term.
Odds correct at 1520 GMT (20/12/18)
