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Free betting tips: Sky Bet Championship - Leeds United v Derby
With 9/1 and 11/1 winners in 2019 already, alongside other successful tips, Tom Carnduff picks out four best bets for Friday night.
Recommended bets
1pt Ezgjan Alioski to score from outside the penalty area at 22/1
1pt Ezgjan Alioski to assist a goal at 4/1
1pt Leif Davis to be shown a card at 9/2
1pt Jack Marriott to be shown a card at 7/1
For details of advised bookmakers and each-way terms, visit our transparent tipping record
Leeds v Derby (Elland Road, 1945 GMT, Sky Sports Main Event)
It's set to be an entertaining kick off to the weekend's footballing action as Leeds welcome Derby to Elland Road.
These two sides both have promotion aspirations this season, while Leeds know that victory could see them five points clear of second-placed Norwich as the Canaries travel to West Brom on Saturday.
The Whites hammered Derby when the two sides met at Pride Park just two games into the current season, but Marcelo Bielsa is expecting a different game this time around.
"Derby is not the same team anymore. They are a lot better now as a team, so I don’t think it’s going to be the same game," he said in his pre-match press conference.
"We have the conditions to try to win against this opponent. But we can’t rely on the fact we played against them five months ago.
"I don’t think they will be similar games because both teams are very different."
Leeds are odds-on favourites, but they could be without Pablo Hernandez and Barry Douglas - two significant absentees.
That could also provide some issues on set-pieces, where Leeds have enjoyed plenty of success this season. Douglas and Hernandez are the two who usually split free-kick and corner responsibility.
Given what I've seen from Leeds this season, I'd expect Ezgjan Alioski to fill in on set-pieces, and he has had success from similar situations in the past.
Alioski scored goals from outside the area in victories over Nottingham Forest and Barnsley last season, and has four goals and three assists on his tally in the current campaign.
The 22/1 on offer for Alioski to strike from distance again is worth taking, particularly if he is trusted to be the free-kick taker.
The referee for this one is Andy Davies and it's fair to say that he has been very card-happy in recent weeks.
The FA Cup clash between Preston and Doncaster last weekend saw five yellows, while Davies produced an eye-watering ten yellows and five (yes, five!) red cards in the three games prior to his trip to Deepdale.
One player who could catch the attention of the referee is Leif Davis, with the young full-back set to step in to the defence in Douglas' absence.
Davis has only played two senior games for the club and his inexperience could be exposed against a Derby attack with skill and pace.
It's also worth noting that he committed two fouls in that win over Aston Villa and, in a game such as this, he looks overpriced at 9/2.
For the away side, Jack Marriott's 26 fouls committed - the third-highest in this Derby side - suggests that he should count himself lucky that he has only been shown three yellow cards this season.
His foul count is only topped by Jayden Bogle and Tom Lawrence, but it's important to acknowledge that he didn't start any of Derby's opening 11 league games and in that respect is playing catch-up.
Derby also have the second-worst record in the division for picking up cards away from home, and they should add to their tally in a game like this where the intensity will be high and the atmosphere will be a significant factor.
Score prediction: Leeds 2-1 Derby (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Best bets:
Opta facts
- Leeds – 4-1 winners at Pride Park in August - are looking to complete a league double over Derby County for the first time since the 2001-02 season.
- Derby have won five of their last nine league matches at Elland Road against Leeds (D2 L2) – one more than in their previous 35 visits combined.
- This is the second time in the last three seasons Leeds and Derby have met on Friday in the Championship at Elland Road – in 2016-17, the Whites won 1-0 thanks to a Chris Wood winner.
- Derby haven’t won consecutive away league matches since January 2018.
- Leeds striker Kemar Roofe has netted seven winning goals in the Championship this season, a joint-league high along with Norwich City’s Teemu Pukki.
- Harry Wilson has scored eight goals in his last 13 Championship appearances for Derby, with four of those strikes coming away from home.