Sky Bet League Two: Nick Hext's betting tips

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All matches start at 1730 BST on Saturday... 

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2pts Accrington Stanley to beat Stevenage at 15/4 - Stanley can end Stevenage's play-off hopes with a win at a big price

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Accrington Stanley to beat Stevenage

Accrington needed to beat Stevenage on the final day of the Sky Bet League Two season in 2016 to secure promotion. They didn't. A 0-0 draw allowed Oxford and Bristol Rovers to climb above Stanley and join Northampton in moving up to League One. Accrington then went on to lose to AFC Wimbledon in the play-off semi-finals, who also ended up winning promotion at Wembley, to remain in the fourth tier and they couldn't match last term's form after the departures of a number of key players. This year, Accrington are facing Stevenage to end the campaign again. This time the contest is further south at Stevenage's Lamex Stadium and the hosts still have hopes of a play-off place. Darren Sarll's men sit outside the top seven courtesy of an inferior goal difference to Blackpool but I don't think they'll get the win that they require. Star striker Matt Godden is ruled out again and his absence has made a big difference during a five-game run without a victory. Accrington have lost their last couple of matches but they've produced some terrific performances during 2017 and I like Stanley at just over 4/1 to get the three points.

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Doncaster Rovers to beat Hartlepool United by one goal 

The focus of the Sky Sports 1 cameras is on Hartlepool's bid to remain in Sky Bet League Two when they take on second-placed Doncaster. Pools are without a win in their last eight outings to go into this match with a two-point deficit to third-bottom Newport, the only side they have a chance of catching. Manager David Jones departed before the 1-0 defeat at Cheltenham last weekend but it didn't result in a change of fortunes. Already-promoted Doncaster are simply the much better side in this match and there will be plenty of takers for the close to even-money on offer for Rovers to win. I don't  envisage a surprise success for Pools so the National League is beckoning. This contest could though be closer than expected so a win by one goal to Doncaster, who still have hopes of moving back ahead of leaders Plymouth, is the way to go at 14/5. That was the case when these two sides met in November as Rovers won 2-1. 

Newport County to draw with Notts County

Newport are looking to complete their great escape when they take on Notts County. The Exiles were down and out after losing 4-0 to Leyton Orient, who have since been relegated, on March 4 but they've followed that defeat with a terrific run of form. Newport have won six, drawn one and lost four of their 11 matches since being beaten by the O's and that has seen them overhaul Hartlepool in the run-in. As detailed above, I don't think Hartlepool will get the better of Doncaster so that will see Newport remain in the EFL. My prediction for the Exiles' clash against Notts County is a draw, although Newport will need to go for victory if Hartlepool are leading Doncaster in the final stages of their clash. Kevin Nolan's Notts County have impressed at the end of this season and they'll make it far from easy for Newport.

Posted at 2130 BST on 04/04/17.   

Sky Bet League Two permutations

All matches start at 1730 BST on Saturday... 

The top three places are already decided, with Plymouth, Doncaster and Portsmouth promoted, and Plymouth can secure an unlikely title triumph with victory at Grimsby as Doncaster, who were six points clear at the start of April, have lost their last three games.

Plymouth can still win the league if they lose, Doncaster lose at Hartlepool and Portsmouth fail to win at home to Cheltenham.

Portsmouth can still land the trophy but need to better both Doncaster and Plymouth's result in their match at home to Cheltenham.

Doncaster can also secure the title with a win at Hartlepool - which is live on Sky Sports on Saturday - as long as other results go their way. A draw will be enough if Plymouth lose and Portsmouth fail to win.

However, Hartlepool are fighting for survival and need a victory against Rovers otherwise they will be relegated to the National League. A win won't be enough though if Newport County beat Notts County. If Hartlepool win and Newport draw, then it will go down to goal difference. As it stands, Hartlepool have -22 and Newport -23, which gives Hartlepool the slight edge in that regard. 

The race for the final two play-off places is going down to the wire with three points separating sixth from 12th.

A Carlisle win at Exeter will guarantee them a play-off place as would a win for Blackpool at home to Leyton Orient unless Stevenage can turn around a 14-goal swing. 

However, draws or defeats for Carlisle or Blackpool would open it up in behind with Stevenage, Cambridge, Colchester, Wycombe or Mansfield all ready to strike.

Stevenage will secure a play-off place if they win and either Carlisle or Blackpool fail to win.

Cambridge will secure a play-off place if they win (providing Colchester don't better their win) and two of Carlisle, Blackpool and Stevenage fail to win.

Colchester will secure a play-off place if they win and three of Carlisle, Blackpool, Stevenage and Cambridge fail to win.

Wycombe will secure a play-off place if they win and three of Carlisle, Stevenage, Blackpool and Colchester fail to win.

Mansfield will secure a play-off place if they win, Carlisle lose, Wycombe draw with Cambridge and two of following three happen - Blackpool lose, Stevenage lose and Colchester fail to win. If they win and Carlisle draw, they would need Wycombe to draw with Cambridge, Blackpool and Stevenage to lose and Colchester to fail to win.