Mark Cullen of Blackpool
Mark Cullen of Blackpool

Sky Bet League Two play-offs: Second leg previews


Our EFL expert Nick Hext has a pair of selections for tonight's Sky Bet League Two play-off semi-final second legs.

Recommended bets: League Two play-offs


2pts Ollie Watkins to score anytime in Exeter v Carlisle at 6/4 - in-demand Grecians striker can show his class and book his side's place in the final

2pts over 3.5 goals in Luton v Blackpool at 12/5 - five goals netted in the first leg and more entertainment expected at Kenilworth Road

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Exeter City v Carlisle United (1945 BST, Sky Sports red button)


The first legs of both of the Sky Bet League Two play-off semi-finals on Sunday evening provided cracking entertainment.   

I was disappointed that my tip for Exeter to win at Carlisle didn’t come off, especially with the Grecians having two goals controversially ruled out, but the frenetic 3-3 draw at Brunton Park was great to watch.   

Exeter failed to keep hold of a 3-1 lead that undoubtedly would have seen them as huge favourites to reach Wembley - but I still like the chances of the Grecians to get to the final.   

Carlisle do pose a threat, especially from the quality of Nicky Adams, but I fancied Exeter to go through before this tie started and I retain that belief now.   

Paul Tisdale’s side can be backed at a shade of odds-against to get the win without the need for extra-time or penalties but I’d rather get a slightly bigger price by backing their star striker to net.  

I’d be amazed if Ollie Watkins was still an Exeter player at the start of next season with the Sky Bet Championship his most likely destination.    

Derby have been linked with a £3million move this week, while Bristol City, Leeds and Southampton of the Premier League are also credited with an interest.   

The 21-year-old has been named as the EFL’s young player of the season and he can get a few more clubs involved in a bidding war by proving his quality on Thursday night.   

Watkins is looking to end a goal drought that stretches back to March but his disallowed effort should have been given in the first leg and he remains the class player in this encounter.   

I don’t think we’ll see quite the drama of the opening encounter between these sides but Watkins can make his mark in progression to the final for Exeter at St James Park.   

Prediction: Exeter City 2-1 Carlisle United (Agg: 5-4)

Opta facts:

Exeter have scored exactly twice in each of their last three home meetings with Carlisle, but have only won once (D1 L1). 

This is Carlisle’s third away Football League play-off semi-final match, with the previous two both finishing 2-1 – Carlisle losing to Wycombe in 1993/94 but beating Leeds in 2007/08. 

Carlisle have yet to keep a clean sheet in the play-offs, conceding in all five games (10 in total). 

David Wheeler has found the net in four of his last six league appearances for Exeter, netting four goals in the process. 

The Cumbrians are unbeaten in their last six games, winning two and drawing four. 

Exeter have failed to keep a clean sheet in each of their last 10 games, including shipping six goals in the last two games (both vs Carlisle). 

Joel Grant had a hand in all three of Exeter’s goals in the first leg on Sunday, scoring one and assisting the other two. 

Ollie Watkins has provided more assists in all competitions than any other Exeter player this season (8), with one of those coming for Joel Grant’s opener in the first leg.    

Luton Town v Blackpool (1945 BST, Sky Sports 2)


Blackpool have a 3-2 advantage against Luton for the second leg of their Sky Bet League Two play-off semi-final at Kenilworth Road.   

Mark Cullen was a hat-trick hero for the Seasiders against his former club on Sunday evening and that sees Gary Bowyer’s men as the big odds-on favourites at 4/9 to get to Wembley.   

I wrote in my preview of the first leg: “I think this tie will still be open for the return game and that’s why I will take a watching brief on Sunday night with the intention to back Blackpool in the second leg.”   

That opinion still stands but I was hoping when I offered my verdict on the Bloomfield Road contest for a scenario that would see Blackpool at a bigger price to reach the final.   

The Seasiders can be backed at 11/5 to make it back-to-back wins in this tie but I’d rather go high on goals for this game given the strengths of both sides. 

There’s 12/5 available for over 3.5 goals to be netted at Kenilworth Road and I reckon that’s worth a real interest.  

Over 3.5 goals has been a winner in both of Blackpool’s last couple of outings and all of Luton’s previous three games.   

Both of these teams are stronger in attack than defence, especially Luton who had the luxury of leaving the impressive Jack Marriott out of the starting XI for the first leg, and I think Blackpool will find out tough to close out the tie without showing intent going forward.   

I reckon Blackpool can edge their way to the final and going for goals is the best way to find some value at the prices available.   

Prediction: Luton Town 2-2 Blackpool (Agg: 4-5)

Opta facts: 

Luton have won nine of their last 10 home games against Blackpool in all competitions (L1). 

The Tangerines’ only victory in their last 14 trips to Kenilworth Road in all competitions came in February 2003, a 3-1 win courtesy of a hat-trick from John Murphy.  

Blackpool have scored more goals in the Football League play-offs than any other side (42). 

Luton have yet to win a single match in the play-offs, conceding two of more goals in all three games (D1 L2). 

Blackpool have won four of their last five away legs in the play-offs, drawing the most recent one versus Birmingham in May 2012. 

Mark Cullen has scored five goals in his last four appearances for the Tangerines, including a hat-trick in the first leg. 

Indeed, Cullen’s hat-trick was the first scored in the fourth-tier play-offs since Josh Scott bagged three for Dagenham and Redbridge against Morecambe in 2010. 

Danny Hylton has scored eight goals in his last 10 home appearances for the Hatters in all competitions.        

Posted at 1910 BST on 16/05/17.   


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